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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 40% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP192)

Removing 7 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 40% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 9 Ace-1 cards inside a 125-card stub (DEP192), producing 45.8740% Banker wins, 44.5842% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 0.5451% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5451%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2899%
Ace-1 in 125-Card Stub
9/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9338
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ = = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ = = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPBBPPBBPBTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP192 (4D Ace-1 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP192)
125 / 208 Cards

40% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
9 of 16 Cards

7 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5451%

Resolved at 45.8740% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2899%

Resolved at 44.5842% Player win rate with 0.9338 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1236% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP192.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP192

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 4D (4% Vig)

Depletion matrix entry DEP192 pairs 4D (208 cards) at 40% penetration with 7 removed Ace (1-Point Pip) cards (9 left in 125 cards), fixing per-hand volatility at 0.9338 and Banker house hold at 0.5451% (4% Vig).

For DEP192 (4-deck shoe, 40% dealt), removing aces slightly favors (dep192) banker because banker stands on (4d-40%) 6 against player third-card ace (dep192·4d-40%) while player must draw on 0–5. Holding 9 of 16 Ace-1 cards in a 125-card stub with +0.44 bps rank slope yields 45.8740% Banker, 44.5842% Player, and 9.5418% Tie.

State DEP192 (4D, 40% depth, 9/16 Ace-1 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP192 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP192 Banker (4% Vig)45.8740% (-0.5451% EV)45.8732%DEP192 4D 40% (9 Ace-1)
DEP192 Player (1:1)44.5842% (-1.2899% EV)44.5850%DEP192 125-card 4D stub (0.9338 SD)
DEP192 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1236% EV)9.5418%DEP192 Ace-1 (7 out, 9 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP192

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP192 · 4D)

Statistical verification of DEP192 (4D, 40% penetration, 9 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards in 125 stub cards) demonstrates why single-rank depletion (7 Ace-1 dealt) shifts edges by basis points around -0.5451% (4% Vig).

  • DEP192 (4D 40%): 125/208 cards with 9/16 Ace-1 (6A).
  • DEP192 (Ace-1 split): 45.8740% Banker, 44.5842% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 125 4D cards (6B).
  • DEP192 (4% Vig EV): -0.5451% Banker, -1.2899% Player, -14.1236% Tie, 0.9338 SD at 40% (6C).
  • DEP192 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 9 Ace-1 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 7 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 40% depth (DEP192), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (9/16 in 125 cards); Banker carries a -0.5451% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android