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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 25% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP191)

Removing 5 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 25% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 11 Ace-1 cards inside a 156-card stub (DEP191), producing 45.8737% Banker wins, 44.5845% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0044% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0044%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2893%
Ace-1 in 156-Card Stub
11/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9323
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPPBBPPBPTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP191 (4D Ace-1 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP191)
156 / 208 Cards

25% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
11 of 16 Cards

5 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0044%

Resolved at 45.8737% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2893%

Resolved at 44.5845% Player win rate with 0.9323 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1237% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP191.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP191

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Across 7,673,190,695,193,600 initial 4D permutations, depletion node DEP191 narrows to a 156-card stub (25% depth) holding 11 of 16 Ace-1 cards, where Banker resolves at 45.8737% (-1.0044% EV) and Player at 44.5845% (-1.2893% EV).

Tracking DEP191 across 156 remaining 4D cards (25% depth) shows that when fewer aces remain, (dep191-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (156c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep191-ace-1·156c) occur less often during six-card resolutions. With 5 Ace-1 cards gone (+0.44 bps unit sensitivity), Banker expectation is -1.0044% (5% Vig) vs -1.2893% on Player.

State DEP191 (4D, 25% depth, 11/16 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP191 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP191 Banker (5% Vig)45.8737% (-1.0044% EV)45.8732%DEP191 4D 25% (11 Ace-1)
DEP191 Player (1:1)44.5845% (-1.2893% EV)44.5850%DEP191 156-card 4D stub (0.9323 SD)
DEP191 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1237% EV)9.5418%DEP191 Ace-1 (5 out, 11 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP191

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP191 · 4D)

While DEP191 tracks 5 removed Ace (1-Point Pip) cards across 25% of a 208-card (4D) shoe (156 remaining, 1.0044% 5% Vig edge), Big Eye Boy (lookback 1), Small Road (lookback 2), and Cockroach Pig (lookback 3) evaluate only Big Road column shapes.

  • DEP191 (4D 25%): 156/208 cards with 11/16 Ace-1 (1A).
  • DEP191 (Ace-1 split): 45.8737% Banker, 44.5845% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 156 4D cards (1B).
  • DEP191 (5% Vig EV): -1.0044% Banker, -1.2893% Player, -14.1237% Tie, 0.9323 SD at 25% (1C).
  • DEP191 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 11 Ace-1 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 5 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 25% depth (DEP191), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (11/16 in 156 cards); Banker carries a -1.0044% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android