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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 4D · ACE-1 · 10% DEPTH

4-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 10% Penetration (5% Audit DEP190)

Removing 2 of 16 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 10% penetration of a 4-deck (208-card) shoe leaves 14 Ace-1 cards inside a 187-card stub (DEP190), producing 45.8734% Banker wins, 44.5848% Player wins, 9.5418% Ties, and a 1.0051% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0051%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.2886%
Ace-1 in 187-Card Stub
14/16
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9308
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPBPPBBPBPPBBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP190 (4D Ace-1 at 10% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP190)
187 / 208 Cards

10% penetration depth in 4D (four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes).

Ace-1 Remaining
14 of 16 Cards

2 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 4D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-1.0051%

Resolved at 45.8734% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.2886%

Resolved at 44.5848% Player win rate with 0.9308 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5418%

Produces a 14.1238% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP190.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP190

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 10% Depth Impacts 4D (5% Vig)

Within four-deck Asian VIP salons and compact automatic shuffler shoes, profile DEP190 examines 10% shoe depletion (187 of 208 cards remaining) after 2 Ace-1 cards exit, leaving 14 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards and a 1.0051% Banker house hold under 5%.

Why does Ace-1 carry a +0.44 bps per-card effect in DEP190? Removing Aces slightly favors (DEP190) Banker because Banker stands on (4D-10%) 6 against Player third-card Ace (DEP190·4D-10%) while Player must draw on 0–5, and at 10% penetration (14 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards left in 187 4D cards), winning banker tickets pay (dep190-4d) 0.95 units per unit staked (14/16) while 90% of the initial (dep190-4d·14/16) shoe remains undealt.

State DEP190 (4D, 10% depth, 14/16 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP190 Value4D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP190 Banker (5% Vig)45.8734% (-1.0051% EV)45.8732%DEP190 4D 10% (14 Ace-1)
DEP190 Player (1:1)44.5848% (-1.2886% EV)44.5850%DEP190 187-card 4D stub (0.9308 SD)
DEP190 Tie (8:1)9.5418% (-14.1238% EV)9.5418%DEP190 Ace-1 (2 out, 14 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP190

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP190 · 4D)

In DEP190, the 187-card 4D stub (10% penetration, 2 of 16 Ace-1 dealt) yields 45.8734% Banker, 44.5848% Player, and 9.5418% Tie outcomes with 0.9308 dispersion under 5% Vig.

  • DEP190 (4D 10%): 187/208 cards with 14/16 Ace-1 (3A).
  • DEP190 (Ace-1 split): 45.8734% Banker, 44.5848% Player, 9.5418% Tie in 187 4D cards (3B).
  • DEP190 (5% Vig EV): -1.0051% Banker, -1.2886% Player, -14.1238% Tie, 0.9308 SD at 10% (3C).
  • DEP190 (4D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 14 Ace-1 stub count (3D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 4D shoe by 10% depth (DEP190), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (14/16 in 187 cards); Banker carries a -1.0051% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android