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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 2D · RANK-9 · 25% DEPTH

2-Deck Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP173)

Removing 2 of 8 Nine-Pip Card (Rank-9) cards at 25% penetration of a 2-deck (104-card) shoe leaves 6 Rank-9 cards inside a 78-card stub (DEP173), producing 45.8996% Banker wins, 44.5678% Player wins, 9.5326% Ties, and a 0.9632% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.9632%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.3317%
Rank-9 in 78-Card Stub
6/8
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9347
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P P B P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBBPPBPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP173 (2D Rank-9 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP173)
78 / 104 Cards

25% penetration depth in 2D (double-deck European salon privé carriers and two-deck shoe pits).

Rank-9 Remaining
6 of 8 Cards

2 9-pip cards (top Natural 9 generator) removed from the 2D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.9632%

Resolved at 45.8996% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.3317%

Resolved at 44.5678% Player win rate with 0.9347 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5326%

Produces a 14.2067% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP173.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP173

How Nine-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 2D (5% Vig)

At 25% penetration of a 104-card (2D) shoe, state DEP173 isolates 2 dealt Rank-9 cards (6 remaining inside 78 stub cards), yielding 45.8996% Banker wins, 44.5678% Player wins, and 0.9347 per-hand standard deviation under 5%.

Comparing initial 104-card 2D weights against stub DEP173 (78 cards, 25% depth, 6 Rank-9 left) illustrates how rank 9 paired with (dep173) any ten or face card (2d-25%) creates an unbeatable two-card natural (dep173·2d-25%) 9 that halts all third-card drawing on both sides (-0.23 bps slope, 0.9632% 5% Vig edge).

State DEP173 (2D, 25% depth, 6/8 Rank-9 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP173 Value2D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP173 Banker (5% Vig)45.8996% (-0.9632% EV)45.8998%DEP173 2D 25% (6 Rank-9)
DEP173 Player (1:1)44.5678% (-1.3317% EV)44.5676%DEP173 78-card 2D stub (0.9347 SD)
DEP173 Tie (8:1)9.5326% (-14.2067% EV)9.5326%DEP173 Rank-9 (2 out, 6 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP173

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP173 · 2D)

Scoreboard literacy in DEP173 separates two independent concepts: 2D card-removal math (6 Rank-9 left in 78 cards at 25% depth, 0.9347 volatility) and derived-road comparison rules (Rule 1 column-depth checks and Rule 2 two-cell lookbacks).

  • DEP173 (2D 25%): 78/104 cards with 6/8 Rank-9 (2A).
  • DEP173 (Rank-9 split): 45.8996% Banker, 44.5678% Player, 9.5326% Tie in 78 2D cards (2B).
  • DEP173 (5% Vig EV): -0.9632% Banker, -1.3317% Player, -14.2067% Tie, 0.9347 SD at 25% (2C).
  • DEP173 (2D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 6 Rank-9 stub count (2D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Nine-Pip Card cards leave a 2D shoe by 25% depth (DEP173), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-9 stub counts (6/8 in 78 cards); Banker carries a -0.9632% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android