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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 2D · RANK-8 · 40% DEPTH

2-Deck Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP165)

Removing 4 of 8 Eight-Pip Card (Rank-8) cards at 40% penetration of a 2-deck (104-card) shoe leaves 4 Rank-8 cards inside a 62-card stub (DEP165), producing 45.8987% Banker wins, 44.5687% Player wins, 9.5326% Ties, and a 0.5059% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5059%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.3300%
Rank-8 in 62-Card Stub
4/8
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9359
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPPBBBPPBPTBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP165 (2D Rank-8 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP165)
62 / 104 Cards

40% penetration depth in 2D (double-deck European salon privé carriers and two-deck shoe pits).

Rank-8 Remaining
4 of 8 Cards

4 8-pip cards (Natural 8 generator and Banker 3 block) removed from the 2D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5059%

Resolved at 45.8987% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.3300%

Resolved at 44.5687% Player win rate with 0.9359 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5326%

Produces a 14.2070% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP165.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP165

How Eight-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 2D (4% Vig)

Removing 4 of 8 Rank-8 cards by the 40% mark of a 2-deck shoe (DEP165, 62 cards left) leaves 4 Eight-Pip Card cards and adjusts conditional probabilities to 45.8987% Banker, 44.5687% Player, and 9.5326% Tie under 4%.

Depleting 8-pip cards also (DEP165-Rank-8) lowers two-card Natural 8 lockouts (62c) when paired with zero-point tens (DEP165-Rank-8·62c) and court cards. Because 4 of 8 Eight-Pip Card cards are absent in DEP165 at 40% 2D penetration (62 cards left), per-card sensitivity (-0.50 bps) interacts directly with mid-early 40% penetration depth (DEP165) under reduced 4% Banker commission (Rank-8) (0.96:1 payout).

State DEP165 (2D, 40% depth, 4/8 Rank-8 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP165 Value2D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP165 Banker (4% Vig)45.8987% (-0.5059% EV)45.8998%DEP165 2D 40% (4 Rank-8)
DEP165 Player (1:1)44.5687% (-1.3300% EV)44.5676%DEP165 62-card 2D stub (0.9359 SD)
DEP165 Tie (8:1)9.5326% (-14.2070% EV)9.5326%DEP165 Rank-8 (4 out, 4 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP165

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP165 · 2D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP165 (2D 40% depth, 4/8 Rank-8 in 62 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9359 SD) dominates the 0.5059% (4% Vig) Banker and 1.3300% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP165 (2D 40%): 62/104 cards with 4/8 Rank-8 (4A).
  • DEP165 (Rank-8 split): 45.8987% Banker, 44.5687% Player, 9.5326% Tie in 62 2D cards (4B).
  • DEP165 (4% Vig EV): -0.5059% Banker, -1.3300% Player, -14.2070% Tie, 0.9359 SD at 40% (4C).
  • DEP165 (2D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 4 Rank-8 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 4 Eight-Pip Card cards leave a 2D shoe by 40% depth (DEP165), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-8 stub counts (4/8 in 62 cards); Banker carries a -0.5059% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android