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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 2D · RANK-4 · 25% DEPTH

2-Deck Four-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Penetration (5% Audit DEP128)

Removing 2 of 8 Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) cards at 25% penetration of a 2-deck (104-card) shoe leaves 6 Rank-4 cards inside a 78-card stub (DEP128), producing 45.9010% Banker wins, 44.5664% Player wins, 9.5326% Ties, and a 0.9605% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.9605%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.3345%
Rank-4 in 78-Card Stub
6/8
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9332
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ = = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ = = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPBBPPBBPBTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP128 (2D Rank-4 at 25% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP128)
78 / 104 Cards

25% penetration depth in 2D (double-deck European salon privé carriers and two-deck shoe pits).

Rank-4 Remaining
6 of 8 Cards

2 4-pip cards (strongest pro-Banker removal sensitivity) removed from the 2D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.9605%

Resolved at 45.9010% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.3345%

Resolved at 44.5664% Player win rate with 0.9332 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5326%

Produces a 14.2064% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP128.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP128

How Four-Pip Card Depletion at 25% Depth Impacts 2D (5% Vig)

In combinatorial record DEP128, depleting 2 Rank-4 cards across 25% of a 2D (104-card) pack leaves 6 Four-Pip Card cards among 78 remaining cards, setting Banker win probability to 45.9010% and house edge to 0.9605% (5% Vig).

Rank 4 sits at (DEP128) the exact pivot where Banker (2D-25%) 5 begins drawing (Player third (DEP128·2D-25%) card 4–7) while Banker 3 and 4 also draw. In state DEP128 (2D, 25% depth), each removed Rank-4 card applies a +1.19 bps baseline directional pressure before scaling to the 78-card remainder (6 Rank-4 left), while One-quarter of the shoe (DEP128-2D) has exited the carrier and (6/8) winning Banker wagers pay 0.95 (DEP128-2D·6/8) to 1 after 5% house tax.

State DEP128 (2D, 25% depth, 6/8 Rank-4 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP128 Value2D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP128 Banker (5% Vig)45.9010% (-0.9605% EV)45.8998%DEP128 2D 25% (6 Rank-4)
DEP128 Player (1:1)44.5664% (-1.3345% EV)44.5676%DEP128 78-card 2D stub (0.9332 SD)
DEP128 Tie (8:1)9.5326% (-14.2064% EV)9.5326%DEP128 Rank-4 (2 out, 6 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP128

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP128 · 2D)

Scoreboard literacy in DEP128 separates two independent concepts: 2D card-removal math (6 Rank-4 left in 78 cards at 25% depth, 0.9332 volatility) and derived-road comparison rules (Rule 1 column-depth checks and Rule 2 two-cell lookbacks).

  • DEP128 (2D 25%): 78/104 cards with 6/8 Rank-4 (1A).
  • DEP128 (Rank-4 split): 45.9010% Banker, 44.5664% Player, 9.5326% Tie in 78 2D cards (1B).
  • DEP128 (5% Vig EV): -0.9605% Banker, -1.3345% Player, -14.2064% Tie, 0.9332 SD at 25% (1C).
  • DEP128 (2D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 6 Rank-4 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Four-Pip Card cards leave a 2D shoe by 25% depth (DEP128), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-4 stub counts (6/8 in 78 cards); Banker carries a -0.9605% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android