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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 2D · ACE-1 · 70% DEPTH

2-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP105)

Removing 6 of 8 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 70% penetration of a 2-deck (104-card) shoe leaves 2 Ace-1 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP105), producing 45.9015% Banker wins, 44.5659% Player wins, 9.5326% Ties, and a 0.9595% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.9595%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.3356%
Ace-1 in 31-Card Stub
2/8
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9368
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPTBPPBBPBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP105 (2D Ace-1 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP105)
31 / 104 Cards

70% penetration depth in 2D (double-deck European salon privé carriers and two-deck shoe pits).

Ace-1 Remaining
2 of 8 Cards

6 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 2D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.9595%

Resolved at 45.9015% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.3356%

Resolved at 44.5659% Player win rate with 0.9368 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5326%

Produces a 14.2063% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP105.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP105

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 2D (5% Vig)

Card-removal benchmark DEP105 measures Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) scarcity at 70% depth in a 2-deck shoe: 6 removed ranks leave 2 in the 31-card remainder, shifting Banker win share to 45.9015% (0.9595% edge, 5% Vig).

In six-card resolution tree DEP105 (2D at 70% depth, 31 cards left), when fewer aces remain, (dep105-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (31c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep105-ace-1·31c) occur less often during six-card resolutions; removing 6 of 8 Ace-1 cards (+0.44 bps weight) leaves Banker at -0.9595% EV under 5%.

State DEP105 (2D, 70% depth, 2/8 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP105 Value2D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP105 Banker (5% Vig)45.9015% (-0.9595% EV)45.8998%DEP105 2D 70% (2 Ace-1)
DEP105 Player (1:1)44.5659% (-1.3356% EV)44.5676%DEP105 31-card 2D stub (0.9368 SD)
DEP105 Tie (8:1)9.5326% (-14.2063% EV)9.5326%DEP105 Ace-1 (6 out, 2 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP105

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP105 · 2D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP105 (2D 70% depth, 2/8 Ace-1 in 31 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9368 SD) dominates the 0.9595% (5% Vig) Banker and 1.3356% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP105 (2D 70%): 31/104 cards with 2/8 Ace-1 (5A).
  • DEP105 (Ace-1 split): 45.9015% Banker, 44.5659% Player, 9.5326% Tie in 31 2D cards (5B).
  • DEP105 (5% Vig EV): -0.9595% Banker, -1.3356% Player, -14.2063% Tie, 0.9368 SD at 70% (5C).
  • DEP105 (2D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 2 Ace-1 stub count (5D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 6 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 2D shoe by 70% depth (DEP105), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (2/8 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.9595% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android