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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 2D · ACE-1 · 40% DEPTH

2-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP102)

Removing 4 of 8 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 40% penetration of a 2-deck (104-card) shoe leaves 4 Ace-1 cards inside a 62-card stub (DEP102), producing 45.9007% Banker wins, 44.5666% Player wins, 9.5326% Ties, and a 0.5019% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5019%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.3341%
Ace-1 in 62-Card Stub
4/8
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9338
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBBPPPBBPBTBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP102 (2D Ace-1 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP102)
62 / 104 Cards

40% penetration depth in 2D (double-deck European salon privé carriers and two-deck shoe pits).

Ace-1 Remaining
4 of 8 Cards

4 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 2D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.5019%

Resolved at 45.9007% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.3341%

Resolved at 44.5666% Player win rate with 0.9338 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5326%

Produces a 14.2064% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP102.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP102

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 2D (4% Vig)

Finite-shoe specification DEP102 tracks Ace-1 removal at 40% depth in 2-deck play: with 4 of 8 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards left in the 62-card stub, Tie incidence is 9.5326% and Banker expectation settles at -0.5019% (4% Vig).

Tableau audit DEP102 confirms that removing aces slightly favors (dep102) banker because banker stands on (2d-40%) 6 against player third-card ace (dep102·2d-40%) while player must draw on 0–5. Inside the 62-card 2D stub (40% depth, 4/8 Ace-1 remaining, +0.44 bps slope), standard deviation is 0.9338 under 4% Vig.

State DEP102 (2D, 40% depth, 4/8 Ace-1 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP102 Value2D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP102 Banker (4% Vig)45.9007% (-0.5019% EV)45.8998%DEP102 2D 40% (4 Ace-1)
DEP102 Player (1:1)44.5666% (-1.3341% EV)44.5676%DEP102 62-card 2D stub (0.9338 SD)
DEP102 Tie (8:1)9.5326% (-14.2064% EV)9.5326%DEP102 Ace-1 (4 out, 4 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP102

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP102 · 2D)

Statistical verification of DEP102 (2D, 40% penetration, 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards in 62 stub cards) demonstrates why single-rank depletion (4 Ace-1 dealt) shifts edges by basis points around -0.5019% (4% Vig).

  • DEP102 (2D 40%): 62/104 cards with 4/8 Ace-1 (4A).
  • DEP102 (Ace-1 split): 45.9007% Banker, 44.5666% Player, 9.5326% Tie in 62 2D cards (4B).
  • DEP102 (4% Vig EV): -0.5019% Banker, -1.3341% Player, -14.2064% Tie, 0.9338 SD at 40% (4C).
  • DEP102 (2D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 4 Ace-1 stub count (4D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 2D shoe by 40% depth (DEP102), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (4/8 in 62 cards); Banker carries a -0.5019% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android