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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · RANK-5 · 40% DEPTH

1-Deck Five-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP048)

Removing 2 of 4 Five-Pip Card (Rank-5) cards at 40% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 2 Rank-5 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP048), producing 45.9577% Banker wins, 44.5267% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.4073% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4073%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4310%
Rank-5 in 31-Card Stub
2/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9350
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ = = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ = = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPBBPPBBPBTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP048 (1D Rank-5 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP048)
31 / 52 Cards

40% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Rank-5 Remaining
2 of 4 Cards

2 5-pip cards (final mandatory Player draw threshold) removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4073%

Resolved at 45.9577% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4310%

Resolved at 44.5267% Player win rate with 0.9350 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3600% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP048.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP048

How Five-Pip Card Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 1D (4% Vig)

Under 4% settlement (4% Vig), combinatorial state DEP048 models a 1D carrier with 31 cards left (40% dealt) and 2/4 Five-Pip Card cards remaining, producing a 0.4073% Banker edge versus 1.4310% on Player.

Because Player draws on (DEP048) two-card 5 and stands on (1D-40%) 6, while Banker 3, 4, (DEP048·1D-40%) and 5 all draw against a Player third-card 5, rank 5 favors Player when depleted. In state DEP048 (1D, 40% depth), each removed Rank-5 card applies a -0.84 bps baseline directional pressure before scaling to the 31-card remainder (2 Rank-5 left), while Winning Banker wagers collect (DEP048-1D) 0.96 units per unit staked (2/4) with 60% of the shoe (DEP048-1D·2/4) still inside the acrylic carrier.

State DEP048 (1D, 40% depth, 2/4 Rank-5 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP048 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP048 Banker (4% Vig)45.9577% (-0.4073% EV)45.9595%DEP048 1D 40% (2 Rank-5)
DEP048 Player (1:1)44.5267% (-1.4310% EV)44.5249%DEP048 31-card 1D stub (0.9350 SD)
DEP048 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3600% EV)9.5156%DEP048 Rank-5 (2 out, 2 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP048

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP048 · 1D)

For DEP048 (31 remaining cards in a 52-card 1D shoe at 40% depth), tracking all 2 exited Rank-5 cards moves Banker win rate to 45.9577% (-0.4073% EV, 4% Vig) and Player to 44.5267% (-1.4310% EV).

  • DEP048 (1D 40%): 31/52 cards with 2/4 Rank-5 (7A).
  • DEP048 (Rank-5 split): 45.9577% Banker, 44.5267% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 31 1D cards (7B).
  • DEP048 (4% Vig EV): -0.4073% Banker, -1.4310% Player, -14.3600% Tie, 0.9350 SD at 40% (7C).
  • DEP048 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 2 Rank-5 stub count (7D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Five-Pip Card cards leave a 1D shoe by 40% depth (DEP048), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-5 stub counts (2/4 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.4073% expectation under 4%.
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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