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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · RANK-4 · 85% DEPTH

1-Deck Four-Pip Card Depletion at 85% Penetration (EZ Baccarat Audit DEP045)

Removing 3 of 4 Four-Pip Card (Rank-4) cards at 85% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 1 Rank-4 cards inside a 8-card stub (DEP045), producing 45.9644% Banker wins, 44.5199% Player wins, 9.5157% Ties, and a 0.8090% Banker house edge under EZ Baccarat.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.8090%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4444%
Rank-4 in 8-Card Stub
1/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9392
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B B P P B P B B P P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBPBBPPBPBBPPBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP045 (1D Rank-4 at 85% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP045)
8 / 52 Cards

85% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Rank-4 Remaining
1 of 4 Cards

3 4-pip cards (strongest pro-Banker removal sensitivity) removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (EZ Bar-7)
-0.8090%

Resolved at 45.9644% Banker win rate under EZ Baccarat settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4444%

Resolved at 44.5199% Player win rate with 0.9392 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5157%

Produces a 14.3589% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP045.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP045

How Four-Pip Card Depletion at 85% Depth Impacts 1D (EZ Bar-7)

When a 1D shoe reaches 85% cut-card depth (8 of 52 cards undealt, state DEP045) with 3 Four-Pip Card cards removed and 1 remaining, Player wins 44.5199% (1.4444% edge) while Banker wins 45.9644% (0.8090% edge under EZ Baccarat).

Because removing 4s produces the (dep045-rank-4) single largest per-card shift toward (8c) banker (and away from player) (dep045-rank-4·8c) of any rank in the shoe, state DEP045 (85% 1D depth, 3 Rank-4 removed, 1 in 8 cards) registers a +1.19 bps rank derivative and 0.8090% Banker house edge (EZ Bar-7).

State DEP045 (1D, 85% depth, 1/4 Rank-4 left, EZ Bar-7)
Wager / MetricState DEP045 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP045 Banker (EZ Bar-7)45.9644% (-0.8090% EV)45.9595%DEP045 1D 85% (1 Rank-4)
DEP045 Player (1:1)44.5199% (-1.4444% EV)44.5249%DEP045 8-card 1D stub (0.9392 SD)
DEP045 Tie (8:1)9.5157% (-14.3589% EV)9.5156%DEP045 Rank-4 (3 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP045

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP045 · 1D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP045 (1D 85% depth, 1/4 Rank-4 in 8 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9392 SD) dominates the 0.8090% (EZ Bar-7) Banker and 1.4444% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP045 (1D 85%): 8/52 cards with 1/4 Rank-4 (6A).
  • DEP045 (Rank-4 split): 45.9644% Banker, 44.5199% Player, 9.5157% Tie in 8 1D cards (6B).
  • DEP045 (EZ Bar-7 EV): -0.8090% Banker, -1.4444% Player, -14.3589% Tie, 0.9392 SD at 85% (6C).
  • DEP045 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Rank-4 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 3 Four-Pip Card cards leave a 1D shoe by 85% depth (DEP045), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-4 stub counts (1/4 in 8 cards); Banker carries a -0.8090% expectation under EZ Baccarat.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android