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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · RANK-2 · 40% DEPTH

1-Deck Two-Pip (Deuce) Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP021)

Removing 2 of 4 Two-Pip (Deuce) (Rank-2) cards at 40% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 2 Rank-2 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP021), producing 45.9606% Banker wins, 44.5237% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.4016% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4016%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4369%
Rank-2 in 31-Card Stub
2/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9341
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPPBBBPPBPTBPBBP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP021 (1D Rank-2 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP021)
31 / 52 Cards

40% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Rank-2 Remaining
2 of 4 Cards

2 2-pip cards across all four suits removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4016%

Resolved at 45.9606% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4369%

Resolved at 44.5237% Player win rate with 0.9341 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3592% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP021.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP021

How Two-Pip (Deuce) Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 1D (4% Vig)

Card-removal benchmark DEP021 measures Two-Pip (Deuce) (Rank-2) scarcity at 40% depth in a 1-deck shoe: 2 removed ranks leave 2 in the 31-card remainder, shifting Banker win share to 45.9606% (0.4016% edge, 4% Vig).

When 2 Rank-2 cards exit a 1D shoe by 40% penetration (DEP021, 2 left in 31 cards), depleting 2s shifts the (dep021-rank-2) probability of banker converting a (31c) two-card 4 or 5 into (dep021-rank-2·31c) a winning three-card 6 or 7, combining a +0.52 bps rank vector with 4% settlement (-0.4016% Banker EV).

State DEP021 (1D, 40% depth, 2/4 Rank-2 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP021 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP021 Banker (4% Vig)45.9606% (-0.4016% EV)45.9595%DEP021 1D 40% (2 Rank-2)
DEP021 Player (1:1)44.5237% (-1.4369% EV)44.5249%DEP021 31-card 1D stub (0.9341 SD)
DEP021 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3592% EV)9.5156%DEP021 Rank-2 (2 out, 2 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP021

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP021 · 1D)

Cut-card protocol at 40% depth in DEP021 (1D, 31 stub cards containing 2 Rank-2 cards) ensures the shoe reshuffles long before 4% house hold (0.4016% Banker / 1.4369% Player) is overturned.

  • DEP021 (1D 40%): 31/52 cards with 2/4 Rank-2 (5A).
  • DEP021 (Rank-2 split): 45.9606% Banker, 44.5237% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 31 1D cards (5B).
  • DEP021 (4% Vig EV): -0.4016% Banker, -1.4369% Player, -14.3592% Tie, 0.9341 SD at 40% (5C).
  • DEP021 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 2 Rank-2 stub count (5D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Two-Pip (Deuce) cards leave a 1D shoe by 40% depth (DEP021), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Rank-2 stub counts (2/4 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.4016% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android