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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · ACE-1 · 75% DEPTH

1-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 75% Penetration (4% Audit DEP016)

Removing 3 of 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 75% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 1 Ace-1 cards inside a 13-card stub (DEP016), producing 45.9612% Banker wins, 44.5231% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.4004% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4004%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4381%
Ace-1 in 13-Card Stub
1/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9373
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ = = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ = = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPBBPPBBPBTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP016 (1D Ace-1 at 75% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP016)
13 / 52 Cards

75% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Ace-1 Remaining
1 of 4 Cards

3 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4004%

Resolved at 45.9612% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4381%

Resolved at 44.5231% Player win rate with 0.9373 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3592% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP016.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP016

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 75% Depth Impacts 1D (4% Vig)

In combinatorial record DEP016, depleting 3 Ace-1 cards across 75% of a 1D (52-card) pack leaves 1 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards among 13 remaining cards, setting Banker win probability to 45.9612% and house edge to 0.4004% (4% Vig).

Why does Ace-1 carry a +0.44 bps per-card effect in DEP016? Removing Aces slightly favors (DEP016) Banker because Banker stands on (1D-75%) 6 against Player third-card Ace (DEP016·1D-75%) while Player must draw on 0–5, and at 75% penetration (1 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards left in 13 1D cards), three-quarters of the shoe (dep016-1d) has been dealt and winning (1/4) banker wagers return 0.96 units (dep016-1d·1/4) net per unit risked.

State DEP016 (1D, 75% depth, 1/4 Ace-1 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP016 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP016 Banker (4% Vig)45.9612% (-0.4004% EV)45.9595%DEP016 1D 75% (1 Ace-1)
DEP016 Player (1:1)44.5231% (-1.4381% EV)44.5249%DEP016 13-card 1D stub (0.9373 SD)
DEP016 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3592% EV)9.5156%DEP016 Ace-1 (3 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP016

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP016 · 1D)

On the electronic scoreboard for DEP016 (1D, 75% depth, 13 cards left), Bead Plate and Big Road circles record Banker (45.9612%) and Player (44.5231%) outcomes, whereas Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks reflect column symmetry rather than Ace-1 card counts (1/4).

  • DEP016 (1D 75%): 13/52 cards with 1/4 Ace-1 (1A).
  • DEP016 (Ace-1 split): 45.9612% Banker, 44.5231% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 13 1D cards (1B).
  • DEP016 (4% Vig EV): -0.4004% Banker, -1.4381% Player, -14.3592% Tie, 0.9373 SD at 75% (1C).
  • DEP016 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Ace-1 stub count (1D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 3 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 1D shoe by 75% depth (DEP016), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (1/4 in 13 cards); Banker carries a -0.4004% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android