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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · ACE-1 · 70% DEPTH

1-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Penetration (5% Audit DEP015)

Removing 3 of 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 70% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 1 Ace-1 cards inside a 16-card stub (DEP015), producing 45.9612% Banker wins, 44.5232% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.8601% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.8601%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4380%
Ace-1 in 16-Card Stub
1/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9368
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = = = = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = = = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =

Reference shoe scoreboard (BBPPBBPPBBPPBPTBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP015 (1D Ace-1 at 70% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP015)
16 / 52 Cards

70% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Ace-1 Remaining
1 of 4 Cards

3 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.8601%

Resolved at 45.9612% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4380%

Resolved at 44.5232% Player win rate with 0.9368 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3593% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP015.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP015

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 70% Depth Impacts 1D (5% Vig)

Audit DEP015 evaluates a 1-deck (52-card) shoe at 70% penetration where 3 of 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards have exited, leaving 1 Ace-1 cards inside the 16-card stub with Banker EV at -0.8601% under 5%.

In 1D audit DEP015 (16/52 stub at 70% depth), when fewer aces remain, (dep015-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (16c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep015-ace-1·16c) occur less often during six-card resolutions. Removing 3 Ace-1 cards (+0.44 bps per card) alongside 5% Vig rules sets Tie hold to 14.3593% (9.5156% frequency).

State DEP015 (1D, 70% depth, 1/4 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP015 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP015 Banker (5% Vig)45.9612% (-0.8601% EV)45.9595%DEP015 1D 70% (1 Ace-1)
DEP015 Player (1:1)44.5232% (-1.4380% EV)44.5249%DEP015 16-card 1D stub (0.9368 SD)
DEP015 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3593% EV)9.5156%DEP015 Ace-1 (3 out, 1 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP015

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP015 · 1D)

Across 100-hand session horizons at state DEP015 (1D 70% depth, 1/4 Ace-1 in 16 cards), single-hand dispersion (0.9368 SD) dominates the 0.8601% (5% Vig) Banker and 1.4380% Player expectation gap.

  • DEP015 (1D 70%): 16/52 cards with 1/4 Ace-1 (3A).
  • DEP015 (Ace-1 split): 45.9612% Banker, 44.5232% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 16 1D cards (3B).
  • DEP015 (5% Vig EV): -0.8601% Banker, -1.4380% Player, -14.3593% Tie, 0.9368 SD at 70% (3C).
  • DEP015 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 1 Ace-1 stub count (3D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 3 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 1D shoe by 70% depth (DEP015), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (1/4 in 16 cards); Banker carries a -0.8601% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android