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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · ACE-1 · 40% DEPTH

1-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 40% Penetration (4% Audit DEP012)

Removing 2 of 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 40% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 2 Ace-1 cards inside a 31-card stub (DEP012), producing 45.9604% Banker wins, 44.5239% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.4019% Banker house edge under 4%.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4019%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4365%
Ace-1 in 31-Card Stub
2/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9338
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ = = ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPPPPBBBBPPBBPB) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP012 (1D Ace-1 at 40% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP012)
31 / 52 Cards

40% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Ace-1 Remaining
2 of 4 Cards

2 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (4% Vig)
-0.4019%

Resolved at 45.9604% Banker win rate under 4% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4365%

Resolved at 44.5239% Player win rate with 0.9338 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3594% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP012.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP012

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 40% Depth Impacts 1D (4% Vig)

Exact conditional enumeration DEP012 for a 1D shoe at 40% depth (31/52 cards undealt) with 2 remaining Ace-1 cards confirms a 0.4019% Banker edge (4% Vig), 1.4365% Player edge, and 14.3594% Tie edge.

Because when fewer aces remain, (dep012-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (31c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep012-ace-1·31c) occur less often during six-card resolutions, state DEP012 (40% 1D depth, 2 Ace-1 removed, 2 in 31 cards) registers a +0.44 bps rank derivative and 0.4019% Banker house edge (4% Vig).

State DEP012 (1D, 40% depth, 2/4 Ace-1 left, 4% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP012 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP012 Banker (4% Vig)45.9604% (-0.4019% EV)45.9595%DEP012 1D 40% (2 Ace-1)
DEP012 Player (1:1)44.5239% (-1.4365% EV)44.5249%DEP012 31-card 1D stub (0.9338 SD)
DEP012 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3594% EV)9.5156%DEP012 Ace-1 (2 out, 2 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP012

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP012 · 1D)

Synthesizing DEP012 (1D at 40% depth, 2 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards left inside 31 stub cards): 4% rules produce a 0.4019% Banker edge, 1.4365% Player edge, 14.3594% Tie edge, and 0.9338 unit volatility.

  • DEP012 (1D 40%): 31/52 cards with 2/4 Ace-1 (2A).
  • DEP012 (Ace-1 split): 45.9604% Banker, 44.5239% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 31 1D cards (2B).
  • DEP012 (4% Vig EV): -0.4019% Banker, -1.4365% Player, -14.3594% Tie, 0.9338 SD at 40% (2C).
  • DEP012 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 2 Ace-1 stub count (2D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 2 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 1D shoe by 40% depth (DEP012), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (2/4 in 31 cards); Banker carries a -0.4019% expectation under 4%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android