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COMBINATORIAL DEPLETION · 1D · ACE-1 · 10% DEPTH

1-Deck Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 10% Penetration (5% Audit DEP010)

Removing 1 of 4 Ace (1-Point Pip) (Ace-1) cards at 10% penetration of a 1-deck (52-card) shoe leaves 3 Ace-1 cards inside a 47-card stub (DEP010), producing 45.9599% Banker wins, 44.5245% Player wins, 9.5156% Ties, and a 0.8626% Banker house edge under 5%.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.8626%
Player EV (1:1)
-1.4354%
Ace-1 in 47-Card Stub
3/4
Single-Hand Std Dev
0.9308
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P P B B P B P B P P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ = = = ≠
Small Road ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference shoe scoreboard (PPBBPBTBPPBBPBPBPP) illustrating derived-road symmetry checks alongside DEP010 (1D Ace-1 at 10% depth).

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Stub Size (DEP010)
47 / 52 Cards

10% penetration depth in 1D (single-deck laboratory benchmarks and historical pitch audits).

Ace-1 Remaining
3 of 4 Cards

1 Ace cards valued at 1 modulo-10 point removed from the 1D pack.

Banker EV (5% Vig)
-0.8626%

Resolved at 45.9599% Banker win rate under 5% settlement.

Player EV (1:1)
-1.4354%

Resolved at 44.5245% Player win rate with 0.9308 unit standard deviation.

Tie Incidence (8:1)
9.5156%

Produces a 14.3595% house hold on the 8-to-1 Tie wager in state DEP010.

FINITE-SHOE ENUMERATION · DEP010

How Ace (1-Point Pip) Depletion at 10% Depth Impacts 1D (5% Vig)

Depletion matrix entry DEP010 pairs 1D (52 cards) at 10% penetration with 1 removed Ace (1-Point Pip) cards (3 left in 47 cards), fixing per-hand volatility at 0.9308 and Banker house hold at 0.8626% (5% Vig).

When 1 Ace-1 cards exit a 1D shoe by 10% penetration (DEP010, 3 left in 47 cards), when fewer aces remain, (dep010-ace-1) player 7 and 8 third-card (47c) transitions from 6 and 7 (dep010-ace-1·47c) occur less often during six-card resolutions, combining a +0.44 bps rank vector with 5% settlement (-0.8626% Banker EV).

State DEP010 (1D, 10% depth, 3/4 Ace-1 left, 5% Vig)
Wager / MetricState DEP010 Value1D BaselineSettlement Note
DEP010 Banker (5% Vig)45.9599% (-0.8626% EV)45.9595%DEP010 1D 10% (3 Ace-1)
DEP010 Player (1:1)44.5245% (-1.4354% EV)44.5249%DEP010 47-card 1D stub (0.9308 SD)
DEP010 Tie (8:1)9.5156% (-14.3595% EV)9.5156%DEP010 Ace-1 (1 out, 3 in)
TABLEAU & SCOREBOARD SEPARATION · DEP010

Third-Card Tableau Sensitivity vs Derived-Road Marks (DEP010 · 1D)

While DEP010 tracks 1 removed Ace (1-Point Pip) cards across 10% of a 52-card (1D) shoe (47 remaining, 0.8626% 5% Vig edge), Big Eye Boy (lookback 1), Small Road (lookback 2), and Cockroach Pig (lookback 3) evaluate only Big Road column shapes.

  • DEP010 (1D 10%): 47/52 cards with 3/4 Ace-1 (6A).
  • DEP010 (Ace-1 split): 45.9599% Banker, 44.5245% Player, 9.5156% Tie in 47 1D cards (6B).
  • DEP010 (5% Vig EV): -0.8626% Banker, -1.4354% Player, -14.3595% Tie, 0.9308 SD at 10% (6C).
  • DEP010 (1D roads): red/blue marks log Big Road columns, never 3 Ace-1 stub count (6D).
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythWhen 1 Ace (1-Point Pip) cards leave a 1D shoe by 10% depth (DEP010), Big Eye Boy red or blue marks show whether Banker or Player will win next.
TruthDerived-road red and blue marks only compare Big Road column lengths and never track Ace-1 stub counts (3/4 in 47 cards); Banker carries a -0.8626% expectation under 5%.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android