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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · REV LABOUCHERE VS MACAU 3-STEP

Reverse Labouchere Line vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission (288-Hand Stress Test)

Combinatorial stress ledger S449-0 charts Reverse Labouchere Line versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 288 coups (160u bankroll, 100u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 23.98% vs 15.35% ruin along the variance-scaled trajectory. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Rev Labouchere Ruin Rate
23.98%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
15.35%
Peak Trough (3-Run)
-20u
4-Shoe Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S449 (Rev Labouchere vs Macau 3-Step, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Rev Labouchere vs Macau 3-Step (4-Shoe Chop)

Stress cell S449 compares [1-2-3-2-1] press line against 1-3-7 cap over 288 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
23.98% vs 15.35%

Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.85u vs 5.13u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-20u vs -16u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
27 Ties · 3.29u Drag

Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 3.29u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S449 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Rev Labouchere vs. Macau 3-Step absorbing-barrier volatility-band (288 Hands · S449)

Head-to-head matrix S449-1 subjects Rev Labouchere ([1-2-3-2-1] press line) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) with 160 units and a 100-unit roof, inspects 6.85u versus 5.13u in mathematical house hold and 23.98% versus 15.35% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S449-2 documents Reverse Labouchere Line versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 288 coups (160u bankroll, 100u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 23.98% vs 15.35% ruin along the session-bounded cycle-span.

S449 volatility-bandRev LabouchereMacau 3-Step
Rev Labouchere / Macau 3-Step Rule[1-2-3-2-1] press line1-3-7 cap
288-Hand Ruin (160u)23.98%15.35%
4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%)6.85u5.13u
3-Run Trough (100u Cap)-20u-16u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

4-Shoe Chop Vigorish (3.29u) & 9.38% Tie Push Audit (S449)

Head-to-head matrix S449-3 subjects Rev Labouchere ([1-2-3-2-1] press line) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) with 160 units and a 100-unit roof, audits 6.85u versus 5.13u in mathematical house hold and 23.98% versus 15.35% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S449-4 profiles Reverse Labouchere Line versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 288 coups (160u bankroll, 100u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 23.98% vs 15.35% ruin along the finite-shoe capital-runway.

  • Trial S449: set a 160u stop before running Rev Labouchere vs Macau 3-Step over 288 hands.
  • Scenario S449 calibrates 3.29u in commission drag and 27 tie pushes (9.38% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S449: derived road red marks absorbing-barrier column repetition and blue marks a structural break (volatility-band), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to Rev Labouchere during Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 288 hands on a 160-unit stack, Rev Labouchere carries 6.85u expected loss (23.98% ruin) vs 5.13u (15.35% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 3-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android