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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · REV FIBONACCI VS CONTRA D'ALEMBERT

Reverse Fibonacci Press vs. Contra D'Alembert Press — 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (74-Hand Stress Test)

In sequential comparative trial S427-0, running Rev Fibonacci against Contra D'Alembert for 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) on 90 units measures 2.15u vs 1.72u in expected toll and 9.42% vs 7.05% ruin under a 65-unit pit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Rev Fibonacci Ruin Rate
9.42%
Contra D'Alembert Ruin Rate
7.05%
Peak Trough (11-Run)
-44u
No-Comm Streak House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S427 (Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert, 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert (No-Comm Streak)

Stress cell S427 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13 against +1 on win / -1 on loss over 74 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
9.42% vs 7.05%

Probability of exhausting the 90-unit bankroll under a 65-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.15u vs 1.72u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 74 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-44u vs -27u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 11-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 1.33u Drag

Reflects 8.11% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 1.33u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S427 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Rev Fibonacci vs. Contra D'Alembert capital-bounded footprint (74 Hands · S427)

Under No-Comm Streak (1.4579% effective edge), bankroll-constrained stress run S427-1 over 74 hands and a 90-unit treasury dissects a -44u drawdown (9.42% ruin) for Reverse Fibonacci Press against -27u (7.05% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert Press inside a 65-unit cap.

In stochastic comparative trial S427-2, running Rev Fibonacci against Contra D'Alembert for 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) on 90 units quantifies 2.15u vs 1.72u in expected toll and 9.42% vs 7.05% ruin under a 65-unit pit limit.

S427 footprintRev FibonacciContra D'Alembert
Rev Fibonacci / Contra D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13+1 on win / -1 on loss
74-Hand Ruin (90u)9.42%7.05%
No-Comm Streak Hold (1.4579%)2.15u1.72u
11-Run Trough (65u Cap)-44u-27u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm Streak Vigorish (1.33u) & 8.11% Tie Push Audit (S427)

Under No-Comm Streak (1.4579% effective edge), absorbing-barrier stress run S427-3 over 74 hands and a 90-unit treasury computes a -44u drawdown (9.42% ruin) for Reverse Fibonacci Press against -27u (7.05% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert Press inside a 65-unit cap.

In house-edge-anchored comparative trial S427-4, running Rev Fibonacci against Contra D'Alembert for 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) on 90 units maps 2.15u vs 1.72u in expected toll and 9.42% vs 7.05% ruin under a 65-unit pit limit.

  • Trial S427: set a 90u stop before running Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert over 74 hands.
  • Scenario S427 tabulates 1.33u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S427: derived road red marks capital-bounded column repetition and blue marks a structural break (footprint), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Contra D'Alembert to Rev Fibonacci during 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 74 hands on a 90-unit stack, Rev Fibonacci carries 2.15u expected loss (9.42% ruin) vs 1.72u (7.05% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 11-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android