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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · REV FIBONACCI VS CONTRA D'ALEMBERT

Reverse Fibonacci Press vs. Contra D'Alembert Press — 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (78-Hand Stress Test)

Head-to-head matrix S425-0 subjects Rev Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13) and Contra D'Alembert (+1 on win / -1 on loss) to 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) with 75 units and a 50-unit roof, charts 1.65u versus 1.31u in mathematical house hold and 14.62% versus 8.21% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Rev Fibonacci Ruin Rate
14.62%
Contra D'Alembert Ruin Rate
8.21%
Peak Trough (4-Run)
-22u
5% Comm High-Tie House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S425 (Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert, 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert (5% Comm High-Tie)

Stress cell S425 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13 against +1 on win / -1 on loss over 78 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
14.62% vs 8.21%

Probability of exhausting the 75-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
1.65u vs 1.31u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 78 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-22u vs -18u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 0.79u Drag

Reflects 16.67% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 0.79u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S425 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Rev Fibonacci vs. Contra D'Alembert drawdown-weighted stake-velocity (78 Hands · S425)

Combinatorial stress ledger S425-1 inspects Reverse Fibonacci Press versus Contra D'Alembert Press across 78 coups (75u bankroll, 50u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 14.62% vs 8.21% ruin along the finite-shoe boundary.

Head-to-head matrix S425-2 subjects Rev Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13) and Contra D'Alembert (+1 on win / -1 on loss) to 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) with 75 units and a 50-unit roof, documents 1.65u versus 1.31u in mathematical house hold and 14.62% versus 8.21% ruin.

S425 stake-velocityRev FibonacciContra D'Alembert
Rev Fibonacci / Contra D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13+1 on win / -1 on loss
78-Hand Ruin (75u)14.62%8.21%
5% Comm High-Tie Hold (1.0579%)1.65u1.31u
4-Run Trough (50u Cap)-22u-18u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm High-Tie Vigorish (0.79u) & 16.67% Tie Push Audit (S425)

Combinatorial stress ledger S425-3 audits Reverse Fibonacci Press versus Contra D'Alembert Press across 78 coups (75u bankroll, 50u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 14.62% vs 8.21% ruin along the multi-coup dispersion.

Head-to-head matrix S425-4 subjects Rev Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13) and Contra D'Alembert (+1 on win / -1 on loss) to 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) with 75 units and a 50-unit roof, profiles 1.65u versus 1.31u in mathematical house hold and 14.62% versus 8.21% ruin.

  • Trial S425: set a 75u stop before running Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert over 78 hands.
  • Scenario S425 calibrates 0.79u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (16.67% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S425: derived road red marks drawdown-weighted column repetition and blue marks a structural break (stake-velocity), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Contra D'Alembert to Rev Fibonacci during 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 78 hands on a 75-unit stack, Rev Fibonacci carries 1.65u expected loss (14.62% ruin) vs 1.31u (8.21% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 4-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android