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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · REV FIBONACCI VS CONTRA D'ALEMBERT

Reverse Fibonacci Press vs. Contra D'Alembert Press — Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission (72-Hand Stress Test)

Pairing a 60-unit bankroll against 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge) in cell S423-0 benchmarks Rev Fibonacci at 20.21% ruin and -21u peak boundary, whereas Contra D'Alembert records 8.94% ruin and -13u below the 50-unit ceiling. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Rev Fibonacci Ruin Rate
20.21%
Contra D'Alembert Ruin Rate
8.94%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-21u
5% Comm Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S423 (Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert, Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert (5% Comm Chop)

Stress cell S423 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13 against +1 on win / -1 on loss over 72 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
20.21% vs 8.94%

Probability of exhausting the 60-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
1.52u vs 1.21u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 72 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-21u vs -13u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
7 Ties · 0.73u Drag

Reflects 9.52% tie frequency (7 pushes) and 0.73u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S423 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Rev Fibonacci vs. Contra D'Alembert discrete-time exposure (72 Hands · S423)

Across 72 resolved and tied deals under 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge), table-capped comparison S423-1 tracks Reverse Fibonacci Press against Contra D'Alembert Press on a 60-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 20.21% vs 8.94% stop-loss breaches along the asymmetric drawdown-slope.

Pairing a 60-unit bankroll against 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge) in cell S423-2 calibrates Rev Fibonacci at 20.21% ruin and -21u peak dispersion, whereas Contra D'Alembert records 8.94% ruin and -13u below the 50-unit ceiling.

S423 exposureRev FibonacciContra D'Alembert
Rev Fibonacci / Contra D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13+1 on win / -1 on loss
72-Hand Ruin (60u)20.21%8.94%
5% Comm Chop Hold (1.0579%)1.52u1.21u
2-Run Trough (50u Cap)-21u-13u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm Chop Vigorish (0.73u) & 9.52% Tie Push Audit (S423)

Across 72 resolved and tied deals under 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge), non-stationary comparison S423-3 tabulates Reverse Fibonacci Press against Contra D'Alembert Press on a 60-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 20.21% vs 8.94% stop-loss breaches along the non-stationary footprint.

Pairing a 60-unit bankroll against 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge) in cell S423-4 models Rev Fibonacci at 20.21% ruin and -21u peak distribution, whereas Contra D'Alembert records 8.94% ruin and -13u below the 50-unit ceiling.

  • Trial S423: set a 60u stop before running Rev Fibonacci vs Contra D'Alembert over 72 hands.
  • Scenario S423 tracks 0.73u in commission drag and 7 tie pushes (9.52% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S423: derived road red marks discrete-time column repetition and blue marks a structural break (exposure), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Contra D'Alembert to Rev Fibonacci during Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 72 hands on a 60-unit stack, Rev Fibonacci carries 1.52u expected loss (20.21% ruin) vs 1.21u (8.94% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android