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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · REV FIBONACCI · 40U / 10-SHOE

Reverse Fibonacci Press — 40-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M258-0 profiles the drawdown-weighted Reverse Fibonacci Press (1-1-2-3-5-8-13) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while quantifies an average stake profile of 1.34x and 11.84u ($1184) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
19.94%
720-Hand Expected Hold
11.84u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M258 (Reverse Fibonacci Press, 40u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M258 tests Reverse Fibonacci Press with a $100 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.94%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap Rev Fibonacci escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
11.84u ($1184)

Derived from 965u total action (1.34x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M258 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Rev Fibonacci 40u combinatorial escalation Across 720 Hands (M258)

In multi-coup benchmark M258-1, running Rev Fibonacci across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager calibrates 965u of total handle, 11.84u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M258-2 dissects the finite-shoe Reverse Fibonacci Press (1-1-2-3-5-8-13) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while maps an average stake boundary of 1.34x and 11.84u ($1184) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M258 ParameterRev Fibonacci (40u)10-Shoe escalation
Rev Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13 (7 steps)Peak 13u multiplier on M258
40u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.94% winDepth 6 steps (7 cap hits)
965u Handle & Hold11.84u ($1184)Multiplier 1.34x (combinatorial drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Rev Fibonacci Turnover (10 Shoes)

In session-bounded benchmark M258-3, running Rev Fibonacci across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager evaluates 965u of total handle, 11.84u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M258-4 audits the variance-scaled Reverse Fibonacci Press (1-1-2-3-5-8-13) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while charts an average stake dispersion of 1.34x and 11.84u ($1184) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M258 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u Rev Fibonacci stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M258 audits 11.84u ($1184) in house hold over 965u of Rev Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M258: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (combinatorial escalation) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 10-shoe session lets Reverse Fibonacci Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Rev Fibonacci generates 965u in action, 11.84u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Rev Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android