Evaluating Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan in scenario S402-0 (148 hands, 120u stack, 80u table limit) models how 13 tie stalls (8.78%) and a 10-coup run shape bankroll-constrained ledger, yielding 11.49% vs 8.65% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S402 (Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan, Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S402 compares 1-2-4-reset against 2-1-2-3-4-5 over 148 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 120-unit bankroll under a 80-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 148 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 10-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.
Reflects 8.78% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 1.06u in vigorish friction.
Stress test S402-1 measures Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4-reset) against 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression (2-1-2-3-4-5) inside a 120-unit bankroll over 148 hands (EZ Dragon Streak, streak), where a 80-unit table ceiling produces 11.49% vs 8.65% ruin rates and models 1.06u in stochastic vigorish drag.
Evaluating Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan in scenario S402-2 (148 hands, 120u stack, 80u table limit) dissects how 13 tie stalls (8.78%) and a 10-coup run shape absorbing-barrier excursion, yielding 11.49% vs 8.65% ruin.
| S402 excursion | Paroli | 2-1-2 Manhattan |
|---|---|---|
| Paroli / 2-1-2 Manhattan Rule | 1-2-4-reset | 2-1-2-3-4-5 |
| 148-Hand Ruin (120u) | 11.49% | 8.65% |
| EZ Dragon Streak Hold (1.0284%) | 2.20u | 2.28u |
| 10-Run Trough (80u Cap) | -34u | -25u |
Stress test S402-3 quantifies Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4-reset) against 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression (2-1-2-3-4-5) inside a 120-unit bankroll over 148 hands (EZ Dragon Streak, streak), where a 80-unit table ceiling produces 11.49% vs 8.65% ruin rates and inspects 1.06u in house-edge-anchored vigorish drag.
Evaluating Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan in scenario S402-4 (148 hands, 120u stack, 80u table limit) computes how 13 tie stalls (8.78%) and a 10-coup run shape eight-deck turnover, yielding 11.49% vs 8.65% ruin.
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