Benchmark S406-0 maps the multi-coup progression-curve between Paroli and 2-1-2 Manhattan over 210 hands of Player High-Tie: with 130 units, a 85-unit cap, and 1.2351% house edge, ruin settles at 20.01% vs 12.25% while step-indexed decay-rate reaches -25u. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S406 (Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan, Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S406 compares 1-2-4-reset against 2-1-2-3-4-5 over 210 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 130-unit bankroll under a 85-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 210 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 15.24% tie frequency (32 pushes) and 1.80u in vigorish friction.
When Player High-Tie (high-tie) injects a 4-hand extreme run and 32 tie pushes (15.24% Tie density) over 210 coups, discrete-time audit S406-1 evaluates Paroli 3-Step Press at 3.75u expected erosion (20.01% ruin) compared with 3.88u (12.25% ruin) for 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression on 130 units.
Benchmark S406-2 charts the drawdown-weighted ledger between Paroli and 2-1-2 Manhattan over 210 hands of Player High-Tie: with 130 units, a 85-unit cap, and 1.2351% house edge, ruin settles at 20.01% vs 12.25% while absorbing-barrier distribution reaches -25u.
| S406 survival-window | Paroli | 2-1-2 Manhattan |
|---|---|---|
| Paroli / 2-1-2 Manhattan Rule | 1-2-4-reset | 2-1-2-3-4-5 |
| 210-Hand Ruin (130u) | 20.01% | 12.25% |
| Player High-Tie Hold (1.2351%) | 3.75u | 3.88u |
| 4-Run Trough (85u Cap) | -25u | -14u |
When Player High-Tie (high-tie) injects a 4-hand extreme run and 32 tie pushes (15.24% Tie density) over 210 coups, capital-bounded audit S406-3 inspects Paroli 3-Step Press at 3.75u expected erosion (20.01% ruin) compared with 3.88u (12.25% ruin) for 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression on 130 units.
Benchmark S406-4 documents the sequential excursion between Paroli and 2-1-2 Manhattan over 210 hands of Player High-Tie: with 130 units, a 85-unit cap, and 1.2351% house edge, ruin settles at 20.01% vs 12.25% while capital-bounded survival-window reaches -25u.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
Visual step-by-step breakdowns with closed captions, chapter markers, and full searchable transcripts.
Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.
Inspect Big Road, Bead Plate, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks interactively.
Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.
Practical bankroll boundaries, stop-loss discipline, and 18+/21+ support resources.