In finite-shoe comparative trial S400-0, running Paroli against 2-1-2 Manhattan for 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 85 units evaluates 1.69u vs 1.75u in expected toll and 10.89% vs 7.75% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S400 (Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S400 compares 1-2-4-reset against 2-1-2-3-4-5 over 80 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 1.05u in vigorish friction.
Under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% effective edge), commission-adjusted stress run S400-1 over 80 hands and a 85-unit treasury charts a -27u drawdown (10.89% ruin) for Paroli 3-Step Press against -19u (7.75% ruin) for 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression inside a 60-unit cap.
In multi-coup comparative trial S400-2, running Paroli against 2-1-2 Manhattan for 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 85 units inspects 1.69u vs 1.75u in expected toll and 10.89% vs 7.75% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.
| S400 trajectory | Paroli | 2-1-2 Manhattan |
|---|---|---|
| Paroli / 2-1-2 Manhattan Rule | 1-2-4-reset | 2-1-2-3-4-5 |
| 80-Hand Ruin (85u) | 10.89% | 7.75% |
| No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%) | 1.69u | 1.75u |
| 5-Run Trough (60u Cap) | -27u | -19u |
Under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% effective edge), discrete-time stress run S400-3 over 80 hands and a 85-unit treasury documents a -27u drawdown (10.89% ruin) for Paroli 3-Step Press against -19u (7.75% ruin) for 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression inside a 60-unit cap.
In drawdown-weighted comparative trial S400-4, running Paroli against 2-1-2 Manhattan for 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 85 units audits 1.69u vs 1.75u in expected toll and 10.89% vs 7.75% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
Visual step-by-step breakdowns with closed captions, chapter markers, and full searchable transcripts.
Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
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Inspect Big Road, Bead Plate, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks interactively.
Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.
Practical bankroll boundaries, stop-loss discipline, and 18+/21+ support resources.