In variance-scaled comparative trial S407-0, running Paroli against 2-1-2 Manhattan for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) on 160 units dissects 4.41u vs 4.56u in expected toll and 21.25% vs 13.77% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S407 (Paroli vs 2-1-2 Manhattan, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S407 compares 1-2-4-reset against 2-1-2-3-4-5 over 288 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.
Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 2.12u in vigorish friction.
Under 4-Shoe Chop (1.0579% effective edge), combinatorial stress run S407-1 over 288 hands and a 160-unit treasury quantifies a -18u drawdown (21.25% ruin) for Paroli 3-Step Press against -13u (13.77% ruin) for 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression inside a 100-unit cap.
In session-bounded comparative trial S407-2, running Paroli against 2-1-2 Manhattan for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) on 160 units computes 4.41u vs 4.56u in expected toll and 21.25% vs 13.77% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit.
| S407 decay-rate | Paroli | 2-1-2 Manhattan |
|---|---|---|
| Paroli / 2-1-2 Manhattan Rule | 1-2-4-reset | 2-1-2-3-4-5 |
| 288-Hand Ruin (160u) | 21.25% | 13.77% |
| 4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%) | 4.41u | 4.56u |
| 3-Run Trough (100u Cap) | -18u | -13u |
Under 4-Shoe Chop (1.0579% effective edge), asymmetric stress run S407-3 over 288 hands and a 160-unit treasury maps a -18u drawdown (21.25% ruin) for Paroli 3-Step Press against -13u (13.77% ruin) for 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression inside a 100-unit cap.
In finite-shoe comparative trial S407-4, running Paroli against 2-1-2 Manhattan for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) on 160 units evaluates 4.41u vs 4.56u in expected toll and 21.25% vs 13.77% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
Visual step-by-step breakdowns with closed captions, chapter markers, and full searchable transcripts.
Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
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Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.
Practical bankroll boundaries, stop-loss discipline, and 18+/21+ support resources.
Verify 8-deck combinatorial probabilities, Banker/Player house edge, and commission rules.