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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · PAROLI · 75U / 10-SHOE

Paroli 3-Step Press — 75-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under finite-shoe boundary rules in M163-0, pairing Paroli 3-Step Press with 75 units across 10 shoes (720 hands) and a 100-unit maximum maps a 87.18% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 5 adverse steps before step-indexed distribution truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-38u Stop)
87.18%
Target Hit (+19u Cap)
22.08%
720-Hand Expected Hold
10.69u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M163 (Paroli 3-Step Press, 75u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
75u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M163 tests Paroli 3-Step Press with a $100 base unit and -38u/+19u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
87.18%

Probability of hitting the -38u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +19u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
22.08%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +19u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 75-unit stack cap Paroli escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
10.69u ($1069)

Derived from 936u total action (1.30x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M163 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Paroli 75u combinatorial absorption-curve Across 720 Hands (M163)

Audit M163-1 documents the session-bounded distribution of Paroli when anchored to 75 units and a 720-hand (10-shoe) schedule: the 100-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 5, locking in a 87.18% stop-loss frequency and $1069 in mathematical friction.

Under variance-scaled boundary rules in M163-2, pairing Paroli 3-Step Press with 75 units across 10 shoes (720 hands) and a 100-unit maximum benchmarks a 87.18% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 5 adverse steps before multi-coup profile truncation.

M163 ParameterParoli (75u)10-Shoe absorption-curve
Paroli Ladder1-2-4-reset (3 steps)Peak 4u multiplier on M163
75u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -38u / +19u
100u Ceiling & Ruin87.18% ruin vs 22.08% winDepth 5 steps (2 cap hits)
936u Handle & Hold10.69u ($1069)Multiplier 1.30x (combinatorial drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Paroli Turnover (10 Shoes)

Audit M163-3 models the step-indexed envelope of Paroli when anchored to 75 units and a 720-hand (10-shoe) schedule: the 100-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 5, locking in a 87.18% stop-loss frequency and $1069 in mathematical friction.

Under eight-deck boundary rules in M163-4, pairing Paroli 3-Step Press with 75 units across 10 shoes (720 hands) and a 100-unit maximum computes a 87.18% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 5 adverse steps before house-edge-anchored cadence truncation.

  • Cell M163 rule: lock the -38u stop on your 75u Paroli stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M163 measures 10.69u ($1069) in house hold over 936u of Paroli action.
  • Scoreboard check M163: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (combinatorial absorption-curve) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 75 units to a 10-shoe session lets Paroli 3-Step Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Paroli generates 936u in action, 10.69u in expected loss, and a 87.18% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Paroli bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android