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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · PAROLI · 50U / 5-SHOE

Paroli 3-Step Press — 50-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using Paroli 3-Step Press, bankroll-constrained model M160-0 charts 432u in cumulative action and a 64.83% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the drawdown-weighted profile. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-25u Stop)
64.83%
Target Hit (+13u Cap)
28.55%
360-Hand Expected Hold
4.94u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M160 (Paroli 3-Step Press, 50u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
50u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M160 tests Paroli 3-Step Press with a $50 base unit and -25u/+13u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
64.83%

Probability of hitting the -25u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +13u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
28.55%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +13u session ceiling, with 6.62% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 50-unit stack cap Paroli escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
4.94u ($247)

Derived from 432u total action (1.20x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M160 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Paroli 50u step-indexed threshold Across 360 Hands (M160)

Testing Paroli (1-2-4-reset) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M160-1 profiles a 64.83% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 4.94u ($247) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using Paroli 3-Step Press, discrete-time model M160-2 calibrates 432u in cumulative action and a 64.83% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the table-capped cadence.

M160 ParameterParoli (50u)5-Shoe threshold
Paroli Ladder1-2-4-reset (3 steps)Peak 4u multiplier on M160
50u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -25u / +13u
80u Ceiling & Ruin64.83% ruin vs 28.55% winDepth 5 steps (1 cap hits)
432u Handle & Hold4.94u ($247)Multiplier 1.20x (step-indexed drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Paroli Turnover (5 Shoes)

Testing Paroli (1-2-4-reset) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M160-3 dissects a 64.83% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 4.94u ($247) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using Paroli 3-Step Press, asymmetric model M160-4 evaluates 432u in cumulative action and a 64.83% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the commission-adjusted decay-rate.

  • Cell M160 rule: lock the -25u stop on your 50u Paroli stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M160 models 4.94u ($247) in house hold over 432u of Paroli action.
  • Scoreboard check M160: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (step-indexed threshold) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 50 units to a 5-shoe session lets Paroli 3-Step Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Paroli generates 432u in action, 4.94u in expected loss, and a 64.83% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Paroli bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android