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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · PAROLI · 300U / 3-SHOE

Paroli 3-Step Press — 300-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M172-0 tabulates the session-bounded Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4-reset) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 6.74% ruin rate while evaluates an average stake turnover of 1.61x and 3.98u ($199) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
6.74%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
44.19%
216-Hand Expected Hold
3.98u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M172 (Paroli 3-Step Press, 300u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M172 tests Paroli 3-Step Press with a $50 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
6.74%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
44.19%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 49.07% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap Paroli escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
3.98u ($199)

Derived from 348u total action (1.61x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M172 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Paroli 300u sequential boundary Across 216 Hands (M172)

In variance-scaled benchmark M172-1, running Paroli across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager quantifies 348u of total handle, 3.98u in commission-weighted drift, and a 6.74% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M172-2 charts the step-indexed Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4-reset) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 6.74% ruin rate while inspects an average stake decay-rate of 1.61x and 3.98u ($199) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M172 ParameterParoli (300u)3-Shoe boundary
Paroli Ladder1-2-4-reset (3 steps)Peak 4u multiplier on M172
300u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
60u Ceiling & Ruin6.74% ruin vs 44.19% winDepth 5 steps (1 cap hits)
348u Handle & Hold3.98u ($199)Multiplier 1.61x (sequential drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Paroli Turnover (3 Shoes)

In eight-deck benchmark M172-3, running Paroli across 216 deals with 300 units and a 60-unit maximum wager profiles 348u of total handle, 3.98u in commission-weighted drift, and a 6.74% probability of exhausting the 150-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M172-4 calibrates the absorbing-barrier Paroli 3-Step Press (1-2-4-reset) across a 300-unit bankroll and a 216-hand (3-shoe) window, where a 60-unit table ceiling and 150-unit stop-loss produce a 6.74% ruin rate while audits an average stake threshold of 1.61x and 3.98u ($199) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M172 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u Paroli stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M172 computes 3.98u ($199) in house hold over 348u of Paroli action.
  • Scoreboard check M172: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (sequential boundary) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 3-shoe session lets Paroli 3-Step Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Paroli generates 348u in action, 3.98u in expected loss, and a 6.74% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Paroli bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android