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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · PAROLI · 300U / 10-SHOE

Paroli 3-Step Press — 300-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M173-0 computes Paroli 3-Step Press over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: multi-coup escalation (1-2-4-reset, 3 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to documents a 21.98% ruin rate and a capital-bounded progression-curve of 1.61x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-150u Stop)
21.98%
Target Hit (+75u Cap)
40.33%
720-Hand Expected Hold
13.24u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M173 (Paroli 3-Step Press, 300u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
300u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M173 tests Paroli 3-Step Press with a $100 base unit and -150u/+75u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
21.98%

Probability of hitting the -150u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +75u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
40.33%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +75u session ceiling, with 37.69% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 300-unit stack cap Paroli escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
13.24u ($1324)

Derived from 1159u total action (1.61x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M173 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Paroli 300u bankroll-constrained progression-curve Across 720 Hands (M173)

Under configuration M173-1, deploying Paroli with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) inspects a finite-shoe threshold: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 5 adverse steps drives a 21.98% stop-loss breach rate against a 40.33% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M173-2 verifies Paroli 3-Step Press over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: session-bounded escalation (1-2-4-reset, 3 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to profiles a 21.98% ruin rate and a step-indexed drawdown-slope of 1.61x.

M173 ParameterParoli (300u)10-Shoe progression-curve
Paroli Ladder1-2-4-reset (3 steps)Peak 4u multiplier on M173
300u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -150u / +75u
100u Ceiling & Ruin21.98% ruin vs 40.33% winDepth 5 steps (2 cap hits)
1159u Handle & Hold13.24u ($1324)Multiplier 1.61x (bankroll-constrained drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Paroli Turnover (10 Shoes)

Under configuration M173-3, deploying Paroli with 300 base units over 720 resolved hands (10 shoes) tabulates a variance-scaled footprint: hitting the 100-unit house cap after 5 adverse steps drives a 21.98% stop-loss breach rate against a 40.33% chance of reaching the +75-unit target.

Sequential profile M173-4 quantifies Paroli 3-Step Press over a 10-shoe (720-hand) horizon with 300 units: step-indexed escalation (1-2-4-reset, 3 steps) interacts with the 100-unit limit to benchmarks a 21.98% ruin rate and a multi-coup capital-runway of 1.61x.

  • Cell M173 rule: lock the -150u stop on your 300u Paroli stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M173 audits 13.24u ($1324) in house hold over 1159u of Paroli action.
  • Scoreboard check M173: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (bankroll-constrained progression-curve) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 300 units to a 10-shoe session lets Paroli 3-Step Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Paroli generates 1159u in action, 13.24u in expected loss, and a 21.98% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Paroli bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android