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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · PAROLI · 20U / 10-SHOE

Paroli 3-Step Press — 20-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Paroli 3-Step Press, session-bounded model M153-0 evaluates 778u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the multi-coup turnover. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+6u Cap)
17.09%
720-Hand Expected Hold
8.89u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M153 (Paroli 3-Step Press, 20u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
20u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M153 tests Paroli 3-Step Press with a $100 base unit and -10u/+6u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -10u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +6u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
17.09%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +6u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 20-unit stack cap Paroli escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
8.89u ($889)

Derived from 778u total action (1.08x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M153 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Paroli 20u sequential distribution Across 720 Hands (M153)

Testing Paroli (1-2-4-reset) at 20 units across 720 coups in cell M153-1 audits a 94.80% chance of striking the -10-unit stop-loss, while the 100-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 8.89u ($889) in expected erosion.

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Paroli 3-Step Press, step-indexed model M153-2 tracks 778u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the house-edge-anchored progression-curve.

M153 ParameterParoli (20u)10-Shoe distribution
Paroli Ladder1-2-4-reset (3 steps)Peak 4u multiplier on M153
20u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -10u / +6u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 17.09% winDepth 5 steps (2 cap hits)
778u Handle & Hold8.89u ($889)Multiplier 1.08x (sequential drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Paroli Turnover (10 Shoes)

Testing Paroli (1-2-4-reset) at 20 units across 720 coups in cell M153-3 measures a 94.80% chance of striking the -10-unit stop-loss, while the 100-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 8.89u ($889) in expected erosion.

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Paroli 3-Step Press, absorbing-barrier model M153-4 maps 778u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the asymmetric drawdown-slope.

  • Cell M153 rule: lock the -10u stop on your 20u Paroli stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M153 documents 8.89u ($889) in house hold over 778u of Paroli action.
  • Scoreboard check M153: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (sequential distribution) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 20 units to a 10-shoe session lets Paroli 3-Step Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Paroli generates 778u in action, 8.89u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Paroli bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android