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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · PAROLI · 200U / 5-SHOE

Paroli 3-Step Press — 200-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under absorbing-barrier boundary rules in M170-0, pairing Paroli 3-Step Press with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum evaluates a 18.15% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 5 adverse steps before variance-scaled drawdown-slope truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-100u Stop)
18.15%
Target Hit (+50u Cap)
42.22%
360-Hand Expected Hold
6.63u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M170 (Paroli 3-Step Press, 200u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
200u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M170 tests Paroli 3-Step Press with a $50 base unit and -100u/+50u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
18.15%

Probability of hitting the -100u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +50u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
42.22%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +50u session ceiling, with 39.63% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 200-unit stack cap Paroli escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
6.63u ($332)

Derived from 580u total action (1.61x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M170 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Paroli 200u drawdown-weighted profile Across 360 Hands (M170)

Audit M170-1 audits the bankroll-constrained dispersion of Paroli when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 5, locking in a 18.15% stop-loss frequency and $332 in mathematical friction.

Under capital-bounded boundary rules in M170-2, pairing Paroli 3-Step Press with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum tracks a 18.15% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 5 adverse steps before drawdown-weighted capital-runway truncation.

M170 ParameterParoli (200u)5-Shoe profile
Paroli Ladder1-2-4-reset (3 steps)Peak 4u multiplier on M170
200u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -100u / +50u
80u Ceiling & Ruin18.15% ruin vs 42.22% winDepth 5 steps (1 cap hits)
580u Handle & Hold6.63u ($332)Multiplier 1.61x (drawdown-weighted drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Paroli Turnover (5 Shoes)

Audit M170-3 measures the discrete-time distribution of Paroli when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 5, locking in a 18.15% stop-loss frequency and $332 in mathematical friction.

Under commission-adjusted boundary rules in M170-4, pairing Paroli 3-Step Press with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum maps a 18.15% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 5 adverse steps before table-capped envelope truncation.

  • Cell M170 rule: lock the -100u stop on your 200u Paroli stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M170 documents 6.63u ($332) in house hold over 580u of Paroli action.
  • Scoreboard check M170: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (drawdown-weighted profile) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 200 units to a 5-shoe session lets Paroli 3-Step Press overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Paroli generates 580u in action, 6.63u in expected loss, and a 18.15% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Paroli bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android