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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · OSCAR'S GRIND · 20U / 1-SHOE
Oscar's Grind 1-Unit Cycle — 20-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix
Case M376-0 dissects the sequential Oscar's Grind 1-Unit Cycle (hold on loss / +1 on win) across a 20-unit bankroll and a 72-hand (1-shoe) window, where a 40-unit table ceiling and 10-unit stop-loss produce a 38.31% ruin rate while measures an average stake progression-curve of 1.14x and 1.02u ($26) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.
- Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
- 38.31%
- Target Hit (+6u Cap)
- 32.09%
- 72-Hand Expected Hold
- 1.02u
- Table Max (5-Step Depth)
- 40u