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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · OSCAR'S GRIND · 100U / 5-SHOE
Oscar's Grind 1-Unit Cycle — 100-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix
Case M390-0 computes the capital-bounded Oscar's Grind 1-Unit Cycle (hold on loss / +1 on win) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 38.31% ruin rate while documents an average stake volatility-band of 1.68x and 7.55u ($378) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.
- Ruin Rate (-50u Stop)
- 38.31%
- Target Hit (+25u Cap)
- 36.58%
- 360-Hand Expected Hold
- 7.55u
- Table Max (7-Step Depth)
- 80u