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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS PAROLI

Martingale Doubling vs. Paroli 3-Step Press — Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (148-Hand Stress Test)

Benchmark S318-0 charts the bankroll-constrained threshold between Martingale and Paroli over 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak: with 120 units, a 80-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 41.14% vs 8.05% while finite-shoe decay-rate reaches -64u. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Martingale Ruin Rate
41.14%
Paroli Ruin Rate
8.05%
Peak Trough (10-Run)
-64u
EZ Dragon Streak House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S318 (Martingale vs Paroli, Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Martingale vs Paroli (EZ Dragon Streak)

Stress cell S318 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-2-4-reset over 148 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
41.14% vs 8.05%

Probability of exhausting the 120-unit bankroll under a 80-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.81u vs 2.12u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 148 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-64u vs -24u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 10-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 3.27u Drag

Reflects 8.78% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 3.27u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S318 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Martingale vs. Paroli combinatorial envelope (148 Hands · S318)

When EZ Dragon Streak (streak) injects a 10-hand extreme run and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie density) over 148 coups, stochastic audit S318-1 inspects Martingale Doubling at 6.81u expected erosion (41.14% ruin) compared with 2.12u (8.05% ruin) for Paroli 3-Step Press on 120 units.

Benchmark S318-2 documents the absorbing-barrier footprint between Martingale and Paroli over 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak: with 120 units, a 80-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 41.14% vs 8.05% while variance-scaled distribution reaches -64u.

S318 envelopeMartingaleParoli
Martingale / Paroli Rule1-2-4-8-16-32-641-2-4-reset
148-Hand Ruin (120u)41.14%8.05%
EZ Dragon Streak Hold (1.0284%)6.81u2.12u
10-Run Trough (80u Cap)-64u-24u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ Dragon Streak Vigorish (3.27u) & 8.78% Tie Push Audit (S318)

When EZ Dragon Streak (streak) injects a 10-hand extreme run and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie density) over 148 coups, house-edge-anchored audit S318-3 audits Martingale Doubling at 6.81u expected erosion (41.14% ruin) compared with 2.12u (8.05% ruin) for Paroli 3-Step Press on 120 units.

Benchmark S318-4 profiles the eight-deck cadence between Martingale and Paroli over 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak: with 120 units, a 80-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 41.14% vs 8.05% while eight-deck survival-window reaches -64u.

  • Trial S318: set a 120u stop before running Martingale vs Paroli over 148 hands.
  • Scenario S318 calibrates 3.27u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S318: derived road red marks combinatorial column repetition and blue marks a structural break (envelope), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Paroli to Martingale during Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 148 hands on a 120-unit stack, Martingale carries 6.81u expected loss (41.14% ruin) vs 2.12u (8.05% ruin) for Paroli.
MythDuring a 10-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android