In head-to-head trial S316-0 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Martingale records a -42u peak capital-runway and 26.54% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Paroli logs a -15u trough and 7.29% ruin under the 60-unit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S316 (Martingale vs Paroli, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S316 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-2-4-reset over 80 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 3.24u in vigorish friction.
Within commission-adjusted testbed S316-1, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager tracks 26.54% ruin (5.22u expected loss) on Martingale Doubling versus 7.29% ruin (1.63u expected loss) on Paroli 3-Step Press.
In head-to-head trial S316-2 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Martingale records a -42u peak absorption-curve and 26.54% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Paroli logs a -15u trough and 7.29% ruin under the 60-unit limit.
| S316 decay-rate | Martingale | Paroli |
|---|---|---|
| Martingale / Paroli Rule | 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 | 1-2-4-reset |
| 80-Hand Ruin (85u) | 26.54% | 7.29% |
| No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%) | 5.22u | 1.63u |
| 5-Run Trough (60u Cap) | -42u | -15u |
Within discrete-time testbed S316-3, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager tabulates 26.54% ruin (5.22u expected loss) on Martingale Doubling versus 7.29% ruin (1.63u expected loss) on Paroli 3-Step Press.
In head-to-head trial S316-4 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Martingale records a -42u peak stake-velocity and 26.54% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Paroli logs a -15u trough and 7.29% ruin under the 60-unit limit.
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