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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS PAROLI

Martingale Doubling vs. Paroli 3-Step Press — Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (144-Hand Stress Test)

Head-to-head matrix S317-0 subjects Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and Paroli (1-2-4-reset) to 144 hands of EZ Dragon Chop (chop) with 100 units and a 75-unit roof, audits 6.62u versus 2.06u in mathematical house hold and 29.65% versus 10.78% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Martingale Ruin Rate
29.65%
Paroli Ruin Rate
10.78%
Peak Trough (3-Run)
-27u
EZ Dragon Chop House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S317 (Martingale vs Paroli, Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Martingale vs Paroli (EZ Dragon Chop)

Stress cell S317 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-2-4-reset over 144 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
29.65% vs 10.78%

Probability of exhausting the 100-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.62u vs 2.06u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 144 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-27u vs -13u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
14 Ties · 3.18u Drag

Reflects 9.72% tie frequency (14 pushes) and 3.18u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S317 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Martingale vs. Paroli sequential exposure (144 Hands · S317)

Combinatorial stress ledger S317-1 profiles Martingale Doubling versus Paroli 3-Step Press across 144 coups (100u bankroll, 75u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 29.65% vs 10.78% ruin along the non-stationary progression-curve.

Head-to-head matrix S317-2 subjects Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and Paroli (1-2-4-reset) to 144 hands of EZ Dragon Chop (chop) with 100 units and a 75-unit roof, verifies 6.62u versus 2.06u in mathematical house hold and 29.65% versus 10.78% ruin.

S317 exposureMartingaleParoli
Martingale / Paroli Rule1-2-4-8-16-32-641-2-4-reset
144-Hand Ruin (100u)29.65%10.78%
EZ Dragon Chop Hold (1.0284%)6.62u2.06u
3-Run Trough (75u Cap)-27u-13u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ Dragon Chop Vigorish (3.18u) & 9.72% Tie Push Audit (S317)

Combinatorial stress ledger S317-3 benchmarks Martingale Doubling versus Paroli 3-Step Press across 144 coups (100u bankroll, 75u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 29.65% vs 10.78% ruin along the combinatorial ledger.

Head-to-head matrix S317-4 subjects Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and Paroli (1-2-4-reset) to 144 hands of EZ Dragon Chop (chop) with 100 units and a 75-unit roof, tracks 6.62u versus 2.06u in mathematical house hold and 29.65% versus 10.78% ruin.

  • Trial S317: set a 100u stop before running Martingale vs Paroli over 144 hands.
  • Scenario S317 evaluates 3.18u in commission drag and 14 tie pushes (9.72% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S317: derived road red marks sequential column repetition and blue marks a structural break (exposure), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Paroli to Martingale during Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 144 hands on a 100-unit stack, Martingale carries 6.62u expected loss (29.65% ruin) vs 2.06u (10.78% ruin) for Paroli.
MythDuring a 3-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android