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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS FIBONACCI

Martingale Doubling vs. Fibonacci Negative Sequence — Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (148-Hand Stress Test)

Combinatorial stress ledger S388-0 computes Martingale Doubling versus Fibonacci Negative Sequence across 148 coups (120u bankroll, 80u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 10-hand runs enforce 43.17% vs 13.45% ruin along the bankroll-constrained capital-runway. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Martingale Ruin Rate
43.17%
Fibonacci Ruin Rate
13.45%
Peak Trough (10-Run)
-68u
EZ Dragon Streak House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S388 (Martingale vs Fibonacci, Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Martingale vs Fibonacci (EZ Dragon Streak)

Stress cell S388 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 over 148 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
43.17% vs 13.45%

Probability of exhausting the 120-unit bankroll under a 80-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.81u vs 3.55u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 148 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-68u vs -35u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 10-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 3.27u Drag

Reflects 8.78% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 3.27u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S388 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Martingale vs. Fibonacci combinatorial decay-rate (148 Hands · S388)

Head-to-head matrix S388-1 subjects Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) to 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak (streak) with 120 units and a 80-unit roof, maps 6.81u versus 3.55u in mathematical house hold and 43.17% versus 13.45% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S388-2 evaluates Martingale Doubling versus Fibonacci Negative Sequence across 148 coups (120u bankroll, 80u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 10-hand runs enforce 43.17% vs 13.45% ruin along the absorbing-barrier absorption-curve.

S388 decay-rateMartingaleFibonacci
Martingale / Fibonacci Rule1-2-4-8-16-32-641-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34
148-Hand Ruin (120u)43.17%13.45%
EZ Dragon Streak Hold (1.0284%)6.81u3.55u
10-Run Trough (80u Cap)-68u-35u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ Dragon Streak Vigorish (3.27u) & 8.78% Tie Push Audit (S388)

Head-to-head matrix S388-3 subjects Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) to 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak (streak) with 120 units and a 80-unit roof, charts 6.81u versus 3.55u in mathematical house hold and 43.17% versus 13.45% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S388-4 inspects Martingale Doubling versus Fibonacci Negative Sequence across 148 coups (120u bankroll, 80u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 10-hand runs enforce 43.17% vs 13.45% ruin along the eight-deck stake-velocity.

  • Trial S388: set a 120u stop before running Martingale vs Fibonacci over 148 hands.
  • Scenario S388 charts 3.27u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S388: derived road red marks combinatorial column repetition and blue marks a structural break (decay-rate), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Fibonacci to Martingale during Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 148 hands on a 120-unit stack, Martingale carries 6.81u expected loss (43.17% ruin) vs 3.55u (13.45% ruin) for Fibonacci.
MythDuring a 10-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android