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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS FIBONACCI

Martingale Doubling vs. Fibonacci Negative Sequence — Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (152-Hand Stress Test)

When EZ High-Tie (high-tie) injects a 5-hand extreme run and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie density) over 152 coups, commission-adjusted audit S389-0 measures Martingale Doubling at 6.99u expected erosion (35.57% ruin) compared with 3.64u (15.30% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence on 110 units. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Martingale Ruin Rate
35.57%
Fibonacci Ruin Rate
15.30%
Peak Trough (5-Run)
-37u
EZ High-Tie House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S389 (Martingale vs Fibonacci, Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Martingale vs Fibonacci (EZ High-Tie)

Stress cell S389 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 over 152 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
35.57% vs 15.30%

Probability of exhausting the 110-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.99u vs 3.64u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 152 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-37u vs -23u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
26 Ties · 3.36u Drag

Reflects 17.11% tie frequency (26 pushes) and 3.36u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S389 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Martingale vs. Fibonacci bankroll-constrained exposure (152 Hands · S389)

Benchmark S389-1 dissects the multi-coup progression-curve between Martingale and Fibonacci over 152 hands of EZ High-Tie: with 110 units, a 75-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 35.57% vs 15.30% while sequential drawdown-slope reaches -37u.

When EZ High-Tie (high-tie) injects a 5-hand extreme run and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie density) over 152 coups, discrete-time audit S389-2 quantifies Martingale Doubling at 6.99u expected erosion (35.57% ruin) compared with 3.64u (15.30% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence on 110 units.

S389 exposureMartingaleFibonacci
Martingale / Fibonacci Rule1-2-4-8-16-32-641-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34
152-Hand Ruin (110u)35.57%15.30%
EZ High-Tie Hold (1.0284%)6.99u3.64u
5-Run Trough (75u Cap)-37u-23u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ High-Tie Vigorish (3.36u) & 17.11% Tie Push Audit (S389)

Benchmark S389-3 computes the drawdown-weighted ledger between Martingale and Fibonacci over 152 hands of EZ High-Tie: with 110 units, a 75-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 35.57% vs 15.30% while multi-coup footprint reaches -37u.

When EZ High-Tie (high-tie) injects a 5-hand extreme run and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie density) over 152 coups, capital-bounded audit S389-4 maps Martingale Doubling at 6.99u expected erosion (35.57% ruin) compared with 3.64u (15.30% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence on 110 units.

  • Trial S389: set a 110u stop before running Martingale vs Fibonacci over 152 hands.
  • Scenario S389 tabulates 3.36u in commission drag and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S389: derived road red marks bankroll-constrained column repetition and blue marks a structural break (exposure), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Fibonacci to Martingale during Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 152 hands on a 110-unit stack, Martingale carries 6.99u expected loss (35.57% ruin) vs 3.64u (15.30% ruin) for Fibonacci.
MythDuring a 5-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android