Under Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% effective edge), non-stationary stress run S390-0 over 140 hands and a 95-unit treasury calibrates a -22u drawdown (30.63% ruin) for Martingale Doubling against -16u (16.53% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence inside a 70-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S390 (Martingale vs Fibonacci, Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S390 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 over 140 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 95-unit bankroll under a 70-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 140 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.
Reflects 9.29% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 3.71u in vigorish friction.
In variance-scaled comparative trial S390-1, running Martingale against Fibonacci for 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop (chop) on 95 units tabulates 7.73u vs 4.03u in expected toll and 30.63% vs 16.53% ruin under a 70-unit pit limit.
Under Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% effective edge), combinatorial stress run S390-2 over 140 hands and a 95-unit treasury models a -22u drawdown (30.63% ruin) for Martingale Doubling against -16u (16.53% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence inside a 70-unit cap.
| S390 envelope | Martingale | Fibonacci |
|---|---|---|
| Martingale / Fibonacci Rule | 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 | 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 |
| 140-Hand Ruin (95u) | 30.63% | 16.53% |
| Player 1:1 Chop Hold (1.2351%) | 7.73u | 4.03u |
| 2-Run Trough (70u Cap) | -22u | -16u |
In session-bounded comparative trial S390-3, running Martingale against Fibonacci for 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop (chop) on 95 units measures 7.73u vs 4.03u in expected toll and 30.63% vs 16.53% ruin under a 70-unit pit limit.
Under Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% effective edge), asymmetric stress run S390-4 over 140 hands and a 95-unit treasury dissects a -22u drawdown (30.63% ruin) for Martingale Doubling against -16u (16.53% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence inside a 70-unit cap.
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