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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 50U / 5-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 50-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, non-stationary model M110-0 models 814u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the non-stationary cycle-span. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-25u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+13u Cap)
20.16%
360-Hand Expected Hold
12.23u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

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Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M110 (Martingale Doubling, 50u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
50u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M110 tests Martingale Doubling with a $50 base unit and -25u/+13u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -25u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +13u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
20.16%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +13u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 50-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
12.23u ($612)

Derived from 814u total action (2.26x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M110 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 50u commission-adjusted turnover Across 360 Hands (M110)

Testing Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M110-1 computes a 94.80% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 12.23u ($612) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, house-edge-anchored model M110-2 inspects 814u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the discrete-time distribution.

M110 ParameterMartingale (50u)5-Shoe turnover
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M110
50u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -25u / +13u
80u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 20.16% winDepth 6 steps (20 cap hits)
814u Handle & Hold12.23u ($612)Multiplier 2.26x (commission-adjusted drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (5 Shoes)

Testing Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) at 50 units across 360 coups in cell M110-3 verifies a 94.80% chance of striking the -25-unit stop-loss, while the 80-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 12.23u ($612) in expected erosion.

When a 50-unit stack enters a 5-shoe (360-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, sequential model M110-4 tabulates 814u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 80-unit table maximum truncates the eight-deck profile.

  • Cell M110 rule: lock the -25u stop on your 50u Martingale stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M110 evaluates 12.23u ($612) in house hold over 814u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M110: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (commission-adjusted turnover) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 50 units to a 5-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Martingale generates 814u in action, 12.23u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android