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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 40U / 1-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 40-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under session-bounded boundary rules in M106-0, pairing Martingale Doubling with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum tracks a 39.30% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before multi-coup dispersion truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
39.30%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
34.66%
72-Hand Expected Hold
2.18u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M106 (Martingale Doubling, 40u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M106 tests Martingale Doubling with a $25 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
39.30%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
34.66%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 26.04% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
2.18u ($55)

Derived from 145u total action (2.01x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M106 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 40u combinatorial ledger Across 72 Hands (M106)

Audit M106-1 measures the variance-scaled progression-curve of Martingale when anchored to 40 units and a 72-hand (1-shoe) schedule: the 40-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 39.30% stop-loss frequency and $55 in mathematical friction.

Under step-indexed boundary rules in M106-2, pairing Martingale Doubling with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum maps a 39.30% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before house-edge-anchored exposure truncation.

M106 ParameterMartingale (40u)1-Shoe ledger
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M106
40u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
40u Ceiling & Ruin39.30% ruin vs 34.66% winDepth 6 steps (8 cap hits)
145u Handle & Hold2.18u ($55)Multiplier 2.01x (combinatorial drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (1 Shoes)

Audit M106-3 documents the eight-deck ledger of Martingale when anchored to 40 units and a 72-hand (1-shoe) schedule: the 40-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 39.30% stop-loss frequency and $55 in mathematical friction.

Under absorbing-barrier boundary rules in M106-4, pairing Martingale Doubling with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum benchmarks a 39.30% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before asymmetric footprint truncation.

  • Cell M106 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u Martingale stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M106 tabulates 2.18u ($55) in house hold over 145u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M106: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (combinatorial ledger) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 1-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, Martingale generates 145u in action, 2.18u in expected loss, and a 39.30% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android