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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 40U / 10-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 40-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M108-0 charts the sequential Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while computes an average stake envelope of 2.01x and 21.74u ($2174) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
19.94%
720-Hand Expected Hold
21.74u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

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Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M108 (Martingale Doubling, 40u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M108 tests Martingale Doubling with a $100 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.94%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
21.74u ($2174)

Derived from 1447u total action (2.01x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M108 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 40u asymmetric excursion Across 720 Hands (M108)

In drawdown-weighted benchmark M108-1, running Martingale across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager profiles 1447u of total handle, 21.74u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M108-2 calibrates the multi-coup Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while evaluates an average stake trajectory of 2.01x and 21.74u ($2174) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M108 ParameterMartingale (40u)10-Shoe excursion
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M108
40u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.94% winDepth 6 steps (32 cap hits)
1447u Handle & Hold21.74u ($2174)Multiplier 2.01x (asymmetric drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (10 Shoes)

In finite-shoe benchmark M108-3, running Martingale across 720 deals with 40 units and a 100-unit maximum wager dissects 1447u of total handle, 21.74u in commission-weighted drift, and a 94.80% probability of exhausting the 20-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M108-4 evaluates the session-bounded Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while inspects an average stake cycle-span of 2.01x and 21.74u ($2174) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M108 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u Martingale stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M108 profiles 21.74u ($2174) in house hold over 1447u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M108: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (asymmetric excursion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 10-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Martingale generates 1447u in action, 21.74u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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