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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 30U / 5-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 30-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 360 eight-deck hands (5 shoes), step-indexed simulation M105-0 for Martingale Doubling on a 30-unit bankroll documents a 94.80% risk-of-ruin figure, verifies 20 ceiling-collision events against the 80-unit cap and a 0.50% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-15u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+8u Cap)
19.77%
360-Hand Expected Hold
9.52u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M105 (Martingale Doubling, 30u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
30u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M105 tests Martingale Doubling with a $50 base unit and -15u/+8u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -15u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +8u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
19.77%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +8u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 30-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
9.52u ($476)

Derived from 634u total action (1.76x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M105 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 30u variance-scaled dispersion Across 360 Hands (M105)

Cell M105-1 benchmarks the eight-deck profile of a 30-unit Martingale plan over 360 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 80-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 634u and sets ruin at 94.80%.

Across 360 eight-deck hands (5 shoes), absorbing-barrier simulation M105-2 for Martingale Doubling on a 30-unit bankroll models a 94.80% risk-of-ruin figure, tracks 20 ceiling-collision events against the 80-unit cap and a 0.50% mid-corridor finish rate.

M105 ParameterMartingale (30u)5-Shoe dispersion
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M105
30u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -15u / +8u
80u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 19.77% winDepth 5 steps (20 cap hits)
634u Handle & Hold9.52u ($476)Multiplier 1.76x (variance-scaled drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (5 Shoes)

Cell M105-3 computes the bankroll-constrained boundary of a 30-unit Martingale plan over 360 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 80-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 634u and sets ruin at 94.80%.

Across 360 eight-deck hands (5 shoes), capital-bounded simulation M105-4 for Martingale Doubling on a 30-unit bankroll inspects a 94.80% risk-of-ruin figure, tabulates 20 ceiling-collision events against the 80-unit cap and a 0.50% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M105 rule: lock the -15u stop on your 30u Martingale stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M105 audits 9.52u ($476) in house hold over 634u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M105: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (variance-scaled dispersion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 30 units to a 5-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Martingale generates 634u in action, 9.52u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android