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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 20U / 1-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 20-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M101-0 evaluates the combinatorial Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) across a 20-unit bankroll and a 72-hand (1-shoe) window, where a 40-unit table ceiling and 10-unit stop-loss produce a 74.90% ruin rate while models an average stake trajectory of 1.51x and 1.64u ($41) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
74.90%
Target Hit (+6u Cap)
21.84%
72-Hand Expected Hold
1.64u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M101 (Martingale Doubling, 20u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
20u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M101 tests Martingale Doubling with a $25 base unit and -10u/+6u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
74.90%

Probability of hitting the -10u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +6u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
21.84%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +6u session ceiling, with 3.26% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 20-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
1.64u ($41)

Derived from 109u total action (1.51x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M101 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 20u eight-deck profile Across 72 Hands (M101)

In non-stationary benchmark M101-1, running Martingale across 72 deals with 20 units and a 40-unit maximum wager audits 109u of total handle, 1.64u in commission-weighted drift, and a 74.90% probability of exhausting the 10-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M101-2 tracks the table-capped Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) across a 20-unit bankroll and a 72-hand (1-shoe) window, where a 40-unit table ceiling and 10-unit stop-loss produce a 74.90% ruin rate while dissects an average stake cycle-span of 1.51x and 1.64u ($41) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M101 ParameterMartingale (20u)1-Shoe profile
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M101
20u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -10u / +6u
40u Ceiling & Ruin74.90% ruin vs 21.84% winDepth 5 steps (8 cap hits)
109u Handle & Hold1.64u ($41)Multiplier 1.51x (eight-deck drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (1 Shoes)

In house-edge-anchored benchmark M101-3, running Martingale across 72 deals with 20 units and a 40-unit maximum wager measures 109u of total handle, 1.64u in commission-weighted drift, and a 74.90% probability of exhausting the 10-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M101-4 maps the stochastic Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) across a 20-unit bankroll and a 72-hand (1-shoe) window, where a 40-unit table ceiling and 10-unit stop-loss produce a 74.90% ruin rate while computes an average stake capital-runway of 1.51x and 1.64u ($41) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M101 rule: lock the -10u stop on your 20u Martingale stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M101 quantifies 1.64u ($41) in house hold over 109u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M101: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (eight-deck profile) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 20 units to a 1-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, Martingale generates 109u in action, 1.64u in expected loss, and a 74.90% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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