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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 20U / 10-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 20-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, capital-bounded model M103-0 tabulates 1087u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the table-capped exposure. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+6u Cap)
17.09%
720-Hand Expected Hold
16.33u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M103 (Martingale Doubling, 20u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
20u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M103 tests Martingale Doubling with a $100 base unit and -10u/+6u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -10u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +6u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
17.09%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +6u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 20-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
16.33u ($1633)

Derived from 1087u total action (1.51x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M103 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 20u step-indexed boundary Across 720 Hands (M103)

Testing Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) at 20 units across 720 coups in cell M103-1 quantifies a 94.80% chance of striking the -10-unit stop-loss, while the 100-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 16.33u ($1633) in expected erosion.

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, commission-adjusted model M103-2 charts 1087u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the commission-adjusted footprint.

M103 ParameterMartingale (20u)10-Shoe boundary
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M103
20u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -10u / +6u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 17.09% winDepth 5 steps (32 cap hits)
1087u Handle & Hold16.33u ($1633)Multiplier 1.51x (step-indexed drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (10 Shoes)

Testing Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) at 20 units across 720 coups in cell M103-3 profiles a 94.80% chance of striking the -10-unit stop-loss, while the 100-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 16.33u ($1633) in expected erosion.

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, combinatorial model M103-4 calibrates 1087u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the absorbing-barrier turnover.

  • Cell M103 rule: lock the -10u stop on your 20u Martingale stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M103 calibrates 16.33u ($1633) in house hold over 1087u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M103: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (step-indexed boundary) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 20 units to a 10-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Martingale generates 1087u in action, 16.33u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android