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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 200U / 5-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 200-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under combinatorial boundary rules in M120-0, pairing Martingale Doubling with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum tabulates a 39.30% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before sequential turnover truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-100u Stop)
39.30%
Target Hit (+50u Cap)
36.30%
360-Hand Expected Hold
26.33u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M120 (Martingale Doubling, 200u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
200u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M120 tests Martingale Doubling with a $50 base unit and -100u/+50u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
39.30%

Probability of hitting the -100u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +50u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
36.30%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +50u session ceiling, with 24.40% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 200-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
26.33u ($1317)

Derived from 1753u total action (4.87x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M120 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 200u eight-deck escalation Across 360 Hands (M120)

Audit M120-1 quantifies the non-stationary volatility-band of Martingale when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 7, locking in a 39.30% stop-loss frequency and $1317 in mathematical friction.

Under table-capped boundary rules in M120-2, pairing Martingale Doubling with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum charts a 39.30% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before non-stationary progression-curve truncation.

M120 ParameterMartingale (200u)5-Shoe escalation
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M120
200u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -100u / +50u
80u Ceiling & Ruin39.30% ruin vs 36.30% winDepth 7 steps (20 cap hits)
1753u Handle & Hold26.33u ($1317)Multiplier 4.87x (eight-deck drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (5 Shoes)

Audit M120-3 profiles the house-edge-anchored survival-window of Martingale when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 7, locking in a 39.30% stop-loss frequency and $1317 in mathematical friction.

Under stochastic boundary rules in M120-4, pairing Martingale Doubling with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum calibrates a 39.30% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before discrete-time drawdown-slope truncation.

  • Cell M120 rule: lock the -100u stop on your 200u Martingale stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M120 calibrates 26.33u ($1317) in house hold over 1753u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M120: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (eight-deck escalation) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 200 units to a 5-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Martingale generates 1753u in action, 26.33u in expected loss, and a 39.30% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android