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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · MARTINGALE · 150U / 3-SHOE

Martingale Doubling — 150-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, drawdown-weighted model M117-0 measures 1035u in cumulative action and a 30.70% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the combinatorial progression-curve. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
30.70%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
37.28%
216-Hand Expected Hold
15.55u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

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Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M117 (Martingale Doubling, 150u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M117 tests Martingale Doubling with a $50 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
30.70%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
37.28%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 32.02% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap Martingale escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
15.55u ($778)

Derived from 1035u total action (4.79x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M117 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Martingale 150u stochastic absorption-curve Across 216 Hands (M117)

Testing Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M117-1 maps a 30.70% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 15.55u ($778) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, finite-shoe model M117-2 documents 1035u in cumulative action and a 30.70% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the capital-bounded drawdown-slope.

M117 ParameterMartingale (150u)3-Shoe absorption-curve
Martingale Ladder1-2-4-8-16-32-64 (7 steps)Peak 64u multiplier on M117
150u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
60u Ceiling & Ruin30.70% ruin vs 37.28% winDepth 6 steps (16 cap hits)
1035u Handle & Hold15.55u ($778)Multiplier 4.79x (stochastic drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Martingale Turnover (3 Shoes)

Testing Martingale (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M117-3 benchmarks a 30.70% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 15.55u ($778) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Martingale Doubling, variance-scaled model M117-4 models 1035u in cumulative action and a 30.70% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the step-indexed capital-runway.

  • Cell M117 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u Martingale stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M117 tracks 15.55u ($778) in house hold over 1035u of Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M117: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (stochastic absorption-curve) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 3-shoe session lets Martingale Doubling overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Martingale generates 1035u in action, 15.55u in expected loss, and a 30.70% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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