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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · LABOUCHERE · 200U / 5-SHOE

Labouchere Split-Line — 200-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under step-indexed boundary rules in M345-0, pairing Labouchere Split-Line with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum maps a 30.51% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before asymmetric survival-window truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-100u Stop)
30.51%
Target Hit (+50u Cap)
38.76%
360-Hand Expected Hold
17.63u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M345 (Labouchere Split-Line, 200u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
200u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M345 tests Labouchere Split-Line with a $50 base unit and -100u/+50u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
30.51%

Probability of hitting the -100u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +50u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
38.76%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +50u session ceiling, with 30.72% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 200-unit stack cap Labouchere escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
17.63u ($882)

Derived from 1253u total action (3.48x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M345 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Labouchere 200u stochastic capital-runway Across 360 Hands (M345)

Audit M345-1 documents the eight-deck trajectory of Labouchere when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 7, locking in a 30.51% stop-loss frequency and $882 in mathematical friction.

Under absorbing-barrier boundary rules in M345-2, pairing Labouchere Split-Line with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum benchmarks a 30.51% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before bankroll-constrained stake-velocity truncation.

M345 ParameterLabouchere (200u)5-Shoe capital-runway
Labouchere Ladder[1-2-3-2-1] outside sum (9 steps)Peak 18u multiplier on M345
200u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -100u / +50u
80u Ceiling & Ruin30.51% ruin vs 38.76% winDepth 7 steps (6 cap hits)
1253u Handle & Hold17.63u ($882)Multiplier 3.48x (stochastic drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & Labouchere Turnover (5 Shoes)

Audit M345-3 models the bankroll-constrained cycle-span of Labouchere when anchored to 200 units and a 360-hand (5-shoe) schedule: the 80-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 7, locking in a 30.51% stop-loss frequency and $882 in mathematical friction.

Under capital-bounded boundary rules in M345-4, pairing Labouchere Split-Line with 200 units across 5 shoes (360 hands) and a 80-unit maximum computes a 30.51% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 7 adverse steps before variance-scaled cycle-span truncation.

  • Cell M345 rule: lock the -100u stop on your 200u Labouchere stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M345 maps 17.63u ($882) in house hold over 1253u of Labouchere action.
  • Scoreboard check M345: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (stochastic capital-runway) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 200 units to a 5-shoe session lets Labouchere Split-Line overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, Labouchere generates 1253u in action, 17.63u in expected loss, and a 30.51% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Labouchere bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android