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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · LABOUCHERE · 150U / 3-SHOE

Labouchere Split-Line — 150-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Labouchere Split-Line, commission-adjusted model M342-0 charts 743u in cumulative action and a 23.75% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the absorbing-barrier stake-velocity. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
23.75%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
39.23%
216-Hand Expected Hold
10.45u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M342 (Labouchere Split-Line, 150u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M342 tests Labouchere Split-Line with a $50 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
23.75%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
39.23%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 37.03% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap Labouchere escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
10.45u ($523)

Derived from 743u total action (3.44x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M342 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Labouchere 150u capital-bounded decay-rate Across 216 Hands (M342)

Testing Labouchere ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M342-1 profiles a 23.75% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 10.45u ($523) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Labouchere Split-Line, combinatorial model M342-2 calibrates 743u in cumulative action and a 23.75% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the session-bounded cycle-span.

M342 ParameterLabouchere (150u)3-Shoe decay-rate
Labouchere Ladder[1-2-3-2-1] outside sum (9 steps)Peak 18u multiplier on M342
150u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
60u Ceiling & Ruin23.75% ruin vs 39.23% winDepth 6 steps (5 cap hits)
743u Handle & Hold10.45u ($523)Multiplier 3.44x (capital-bounded drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Labouchere Turnover (3 Shoes)

Testing Labouchere ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum) at 150 units across 216 coups in cell M342-3 dissects a 23.75% chance of striking the -75-unit stop-loss, while the 60-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 10.45u ($523) in expected erosion.

When a 150-unit stack enters a 3-shoe (216-hand) session using Labouchere Split-Line, table-capped model M342-4 evaluates 743u in cumulative action and a 23.75% barrier-absorption probability before the 60-unit table maximum truncates the sequential distribution.

  • Cell M342 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u Labouchere stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M342 computes 10.45u ($523) in house hold over 743u of Labouchere action.
  • Scoreboard check M342: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (capital-bounded decay-rate) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 3-shoe session lets Labouchere Split-Line overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Labouchere generates 743u in action, 10.45u in expected loss, and a 23.75% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Labouchere bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android