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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · LABOUCHERE · 150U / 1-SHOE

Labouchere Split-Line — 150-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Sequential profile M341-0 dissects Labouchere Split-Line over a 1-shoe (72-hand) horizon with 150 units: combinatorial escalation ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum, 9 steps) interacts with the 40-unit limit to measures a 8.29% ruin rate and a sequential absorption-curve of 3.44x. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-75u Stop)
8.29%
Target Hit (+38u Cap)
43.14%
72-Hand Expected Hold
3.49u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M341 (Labouchere Split-Line, 150u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
150u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M341 tests Labouchere Split-Line with a $25 base unit and -75u/+38u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
8.29%

Probability of hitting the -75u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +38u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
43.14%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +38u session ceiling, with 48.57% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 150-unit stack cap Labouchere escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
3.49u ($87)

Derived from 248u total action (3.44x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M341 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Labouchere 150u drawdown-weighted trajectory Across 72 Hands (M341)

Under configuration M341-1, deploying Labouchere with 150 base units over 72 resolved hands (1 shoes) evaluates a non-stationary exposure: hitting the 40-unit house cap after 6 adverse steps drives a 8.29% stop-loss breach rate against a 43.14% chance of reaching the +38-unit target.

Sequential profile M341-2 audits Labouchere Split-Line over a 1-shoe (72-hand) horizon with 150 units: table-capped escalation ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum, 9 steps) interacts with the 40-unit limit to quantifies a 8.29% ruin rate and a non-stationary trajectory of 3.44x.

M341 ParameterLabouchere (150u)1-Shoe trajectory
Labouchere Ladder[1-2-3-2-1] outside sum (9 steps)Peak 18u multiplier on M341
150u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -75u / +38u
40u Ceiling & Ruin8.29% ruin vs 43.14% winDepth 6 steps (2 cap hits)
248u Handle & Hold3.49u ($87)Multiplier 3.44x (drawdown-weighted drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & Labouchere Turnover (1 Shoes)

Under configuration M341-3, deploying Labouchere with 150 base units over 72 resolved hands (1 shoes) tracks a house-edge-anchored profile: hitting the 40-unit house cap after 6 adverse steps drives a 8.29% stop-loss breach rate against a 43.14% chance of reaching the +38-unit target.

Sequential profile M341-4 measures Labouchere Split-Line over a 1-shoe (72-hand) horizon with 150 units: stochastic escalation ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum, 9 steps) interacts with the 40-unit limit to maps a 8.29% ruin rate and a discrete-time dispersion of 3.44x.

  • Cell M341 rule: lock the -75u stop on your 150u Labouchere stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M341 calibrates 3.49u ($87) in house hold over 248u of Labouchere action.
  • Scoreboard check M341: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (drawdown-weighted trajectory) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 150 units to a 1-shoe session lets Labouchere Split-Line overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, Labouchere generates 248u in action, 3.49u in expected loss, and a 8.29% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Labouchere bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android