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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers (216-Hand Stress Test)

In head-to-head trial S377-0 across 216 deals (Player 1:1 Streak, 1.2351% edge), HK 6-Step records a -50u peak trajectory and 30.20% ruin probability on a 140-unit stack, whereas Macau 3-Step logs a -23u trough and 12.86% ruin under the 90-unit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
30.20%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
12.86%
Peak Trough (8-Run)
-50u
Player 1:1 Streak House Edge
1.2351%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S377 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (Player 1:1 Streak)

Stress cell S377 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 216 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
30.20% vs 12.86%

Probability of exhausting the 140-unit bankroll under a 90-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
11.57u vs 4.49u

Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 216 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-50u vs -23u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 8-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
20 Ties · 5.55u Drag

Reflects 9.26% tie frequency (20 pushes) and 5.55u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S377 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step stochastic volatility-band (216 Hands · S377)

Within absorbing-barrier testbed S377-1, a 140-unit bankroll facing 216 coups of Player 1:1 Streak (streak) and a 90-unit maximum wager models 30.20% ruin (11.57u expected loss) on Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus 12.86% ruin (4.49u expected loss) on Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet.

In head-to-head trial S377-2 across 216 deals (Player 1:1 Streak, 1.2351% edge), HK 6-Step records a -50u peak cycle-span and 30.20% ruin probability on a 140-unit stack, whereas Macau 3-Step logs a -23u trough and 12.86% ruin under the 90-unit limit.

S377 volatility-bandHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
216-Hand Ruin (140u)30.20%12.86%
Player 1:1 Streak Hold (1.2351%)11.57u4.49u
8-Run Trough (90u Cap)-50u-23u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

Player 1:1 Streak Vigorish (5.55u) & 9.26% Tie Push Audit (S377)

Within eight-deck testbed S377-3, a 140-unit bankroll facing 216 coups of Player 1:1 Streak (streak) and a 90-unit maximum wager dissects 30.20% ruin (11.57u expected loss) on Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus 12.86% ruin (4.49u expected loss) on Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet.

In head-to-head trial S377-4 across 216 deals (Player 1:1 Streak, 1.2351% edge), HK 6-Step records a -50u peak capital-runway and 30.20% ruin probability on a 140-unit stack, whereas Macau 3-Step logs a -23u trough and 12.86% ruin under the 90-unit limit.

  • Trial S377: set a 140u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 216 hands.
  • Scenario S377 maps 5.55u in commission drag and 20 tie pushes (9.26% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S377: derived road red marks stochastic column repetition and blue marks a structural break (volatility-band), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers neutralizes the 1.2351% house edge.
TruthOver 216 hands on a 140-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 11.57u expected loss (30.20% ruin) vs 4.49u (12.86% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 8-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android